NFL Wild Card Weekend - Saturday

It seems like it was just week one of the NFL season, but the playoffs have arrived this weekend with the lower seeded division winners facing off against each other and wild card entries.

Falcons at Cardinals

It seems like the Falcons were just in the midst of the whole Michael Vick-Bobby Petrino nightmare. Then along came Mike Smith and Matt Ryan, an 11-5 record and a playoff berth. In fact, the Falcons nearly won the NFC South, finishing a game behind the Carolina Panthers.

Ryan was the AP Offensive Player of the Year after throwing for 3,440 yards and 16 TDs, while compiling an 87.7 passer rating and completing over 61% of his passes. But while Ryan gets most of the accolades, this offense really belongs to Michael Turner, who exploded in a full-time role after a tutelage under LaDainian Tomlinson in San Diego.

Turner carried the ball 376 times, nearly 150 more times than his 4 combined seasons on the west coast. He rushed for 1,699 yards and 17 touchdowns, and surpassed the 200 yard mark in the first and last games of the season.

This is just the 4th playoff appearance for the Falcons in the last 25 years. The Cardinals haven't had much success either, especially since moving to Arizona. In fact, this is their first playoff appearance since the 1998 season, which was also the last time they finished above .500.

While the Cardinals can pass the ball with anyone, they're about as flawed as a team can be. World beaters one day, allowing 56 points to the Jets on another day. Kurt Warner threw for over 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns, but put defensive pressure on him and Warner is likely to cough up the football. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are dangerous weapons, so the Falcons must keep up a pass rush on Warner or they're dead.

The defensive numbers between the two teams are very similar, both giving up around 220 yards through the air. But while the Falcons have +3 turnover ratio, the Cardinals have given up the football as many times as they've taken it away.

We've seen this spread range from each team being favored by 1 to the game being a pick 'em, which is the current line on Football Locks, which is the site we've used all season.
Falcons PK at Cardinals Prediction: Falcons 27 Cardinals 23


Colts at Chargers

The second Saturday game matches two of the hottest teams in the AFC. Some bad breaks combined with bad play put the Chargers at 4-8 after 12 games. But they won their last 4 including a winner take all/justice is done game against the Broncos in the season's final week of the season.

The biggest problem for the Chargers tonight could be injuries. Both LaDainian Tomlinson (toe) and Tight End Antonio Gates (high ankle sprain) are questionable. It will be a big blow to the offense if one or both miss the game. Should LT2 (sorry, there's only one LT) be out of action, more pressure will fall on the Chargers' little fireplug Darren Sproles, who had 672 yards rushing and receiving. It also could hurt the Chargers' special teams, where Sproles handles the bulk of punt and kick returns. Norv Turner might have to move him off those duties to lessen the chance of injury.

Had their Chargers finished better than .500, their QB could certainly have been the MVP. Phillip Rivers threw for 4002 yards, 34 TDS, 11 picks, and compiled a 105.5 passer rating. He's developed into one of the best on field leaders in the game.

The Colts are on a roll coming into the playoffs. Led by, now, 3 time MVP Peyton Manning, the Colts won their last 9 games in a row after a slow start caused by injuries and ineffectiveness. The Colts lack of a running game, they ranked 31st in the NFL, could definitely hurt them, but injuries to Joseph Addai is one of the reasons the Colts couldn't run as much either.

Manning garnered the MVP with 4,002 yards passing, 27 TD, 12 picks, and a 95 passer rating. Reggie Wayne has been Manning's biggest target, catching 82 balls for 1,145. But the touchdowns have been spread around amongst all of the eligible pass catchers. The Colts will be without their starting left guard Mike Pollak and back up center Jamey Richard.

The Colts biggest problem has been stopping the run, allowing 122 yards a game. But the Chargers problem has been stopping the pass (31st) and this is NOT the QB you want to be facing when you have that problem.

This game is a pick 'em, because of the uncertainty of the Chargers two stars, but the Bolts problem stopping the pass will be the much bigger issue here.
Colts PK at Chargers Prediction: Colts 31 Chargers 23