Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Let the Games Begin

3 of the 4 division series start today, so we'll take a quick look at each and give our predictions (disclaimer - never, NEVER bet based on our predictions).

Things kick off at 3:00 EDT with 2 teams that looked like they didn't have a prayer in hell of making the playoffs just a short time ago.

Phillies vs. Rockies

In Philly
Game 1 -
Jeff Francis (17-9, 4.22) vs. Cole Hamels (15-5, 3.39)
Game 2 - Mark Redman (2-4, 7.62) vs. Kyle Kendrick (10-4, 3.87)

In Denver
Game 3 - Jamie Moyer (14-12, 5.01) vs. Josh Fogg (10-9, 4.24)

Great pitching match up in game 1 between a couple of big lefties. Francis has struggled in his 3 career starts against the Phillies and was knocked around in his only appearance against them this season. Hamels has never faced the Rockies. He has an excellent 3.24 ERA in the friendly confines of PNC Park. This game could really be the key to the series as the Game 2 match heavily favors the Phillies.

If the series goes to game 4, the Phillies sent Kyle Lohse out against the Rocks Ubaldo Jiminez. Francis and Hamels would face-off again if a 5th and deciding game is necessary. You can definitely see this going the full 5, especially if the Rockies gain a split in the city of brotherly booing.

Prediction: Phillies in 5


Angels vs. Red Sox

Things start tonight at 6:30 EDT and you don't need to ask who we will be rooting for against.

In Beantown
Game 1 - John Lackey (19-9, 3.01) vs. Josh Beckett (20-7, 3.27)
Game 2 - Kelvim Escobar (18-7, 3.40) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (15-12, 4.40)

In Disneyland
Game 3 - Curt Schilling vs. Jered Weaver

What a great match up to start the series. Both of these guys had great regular seasons and both have pitched successfully in the post-season spotlight. The key to this series could be the game 2 starter, Kelvim Escobar. This guy has really blossomed since joining the Angels. Dice-K has struggled mightily in the 2nd half, with the innings, travel, and schedule apparently catching up to him. Smart move though by Terry Francona to give him the start at home.

With off days on Thursday and Saturday, the game 1 and 2 starters will come back if a game 3 and 4 are needed. The Red Sox don't have Tim Wakefield due to a back injury and the Angels will be without Gary Matthews Jr. (knee) and Bartolo Colon).

This could very well come down to a battle of the bullpens. Are Okajima and Papelbon well rested? Was Scott Shields 2nd half an aberration or now the norm?

Prediction: Red Sox in 5


Cubs vs. Diamondbacks

The 2nd NL battle gets underway at 10 pm EDT and has 2 teams that battled their way to division titles, fighting off teams that at one time had the lead.

In AZ
Game 1 - Carlos Zambrano (18-13, 3.95) vs. Brandon Webb (18-10, 3.01)
Game 2 - Ted Lilly vs. Doug Davis

In the windy city
Game 3 - Livan Hernandez vs. Rich Hill

Another series starting with a battle of Cy Young contenders. Zambrano had an up and down season, but will be tough. Webb's sinker is among the best in the game and he can easily shut a team down. He's 4-1, 2.53 lifetime against the Cubbies. Just as the game 2 pitcher could be the key in the Sox-Angels series, Ted Lilly could be huge here. The free agent acquisition is what put the Cubs over the top.

The game 3 starters are a wash. If the series goes 4 games, the Cubs will bring Zambrano back on 3 days rest, while the Dbacks will hold out Webb for a game 5 match with Lilly. We don't have confidence in either team's bullpen and that's probably what will decide the outcome. That being said...

Prediction: Cubs in 4

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