Wednesday, January 19, 2011

BD Hot Stove: The Milestones | Baseball Digest

We're creeping closer and closer to spring training. Which will lead to opening day. Which will lead to some milestones being set. Here's a look at some of the more major ones.

Derek Jeter needs 74 hits to become the 28th player in major league history with 3,000 hits. Ivan Rodriguez is 183 hits away from the mark, but he hasn't come close to that many hits in a season since 1999, and he isn't likely to get enough at-bats to reach the milestone this year.

Others who should reach hit milestones include Alex Rodriguez (top 50 on the all-time hits list), Chipper Jones and Vladimir Guerrero (2,500 hits).

Do chicks still love the long ball after (hopefully it's after) the steroid era? Jim Thome needs just 11 home runs to become the eighth player to hit 600 home runs. He'll only be the 5th not linked to steroids. Speaking of which, Alex Rodriguez will pass Ken Griffey Jr. for 5th place on the all-time list and with a big season (37 HR), he would reach 650 career dingers.

When and if Manny Ramirez finds a job he should pass Reggie Jackson, Rafael Palmiero, and Harmon Killebrew to move up into 11th place. If he hits 29 (past Mark McGwire) or 32 (past Frank Robinson), he can move up as far as 9th. Guerrero and Jones should both reach the 450 mark while Albert Pujols should leap frog over a number of players from his current 45th position. Jim Edmonds needs seven more to reach the 400 mark, while Paul Konkero could get there with a big year (35 home runs).

Hank Aaron's RBI mark of 2,297 seems monumental when you look at it. Pujols currently has 1,230 RBI. He would have to average 107 RBI over the next 10 years to get there. At age 31 that' s a pretty big task ahead. Even if he averaged 130 RBI over the next five years he would still be over 400 RBI away.

Both Alex Rodriguez and Ramirez should reach 1,900 RBI, which only 10 players before them have accomplished (Barry Bonds and Eddie Murray being the last two). Chipper Jones will eclipse 1,500 as will Guerrero. Raul Ibanez, Torii Hunter, Pat Burrell, Troy Glaus, and Mike Cameron can all top a grand.

Juan Pierre doesn't hit home runs, but he can steal a base like few others. He'll move into the top 25 in career thefts with 31 swipes this season. Carl Crawford should run away with number 450, while Ichiro Suzuki will top the 400 mark. Johnny Damon (15) and Bobby Abreu (28) also have outside shots at the 400 plateau.

Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes will top 350, with the latter having a shot at 400 as well if he can steal 69 bases this season.

The leader in wins coming into the 2011 season is Jamie Moyer with 267, but with the 49-yr old coming off major surgery, he'll be stuck on that number for some time to come. Andy Pettitte is just 10 wins away from 250, but will he pitch? That means the only career leader who will definitely be active on opening day will be Tim Wakefield. The knuckler needs seven wins to top the 200 mark.

It's not likely that Roy Halladay will win 31 games, though I wouldn't put it past him. But, he will move up significantly on the list from his current total of 169 victories. Mark Buehrle needs a pair of wins for 150 as does Mike Hampton, though with the latter's health issues you never know. Yet another lefty, Barry Zito, needs eight more wins while right-hander Jeff Suppan needs a team and 12 wins. With another good year, Chris Carpenter (17) will get there as well.

Miguel Batista, Dan Haren, Joel Pineiro, and Jason Marquis are all on the precipice of the century mark.

3,000 strikeouts is another remarkable sign of longetivy and it's not likely to be reached by anyone in the near future. The top three active leaders - Moyer (2,405), Javier Vazquez (2,374), and Pettite (2,251) won't get there. If he finds a taker, Kevin Millwood will top the 2,000 mark this season. CC Sabathia has an outside shot at reaching 2000, with 202 K's needed. He's topped the mark twice in his career, and came up shy of a third time last year by 3.

Chris Carpenter, Ted Lilly, Jake Peavy (if healthy), Josh Beckett, and Carlos Zambrano will break the 1,500 barrier. Joel Pineiro, Scott Kazmir, Kyle Lohse, Justin Verlander, Carl Pavano, Zack Greinke, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Marquis, and Cole Hamels will all top 1,000 career K's.

When Trevor Hoffman retired as the all-time saves leader he knew the record wouldn't last long. Maybe not even one season. Mariano Rivera trails Hoffman by just 42 saves, meaning if he can eclipse the number (42) on his back this year, he'll be the new numero uno. Francisco Cordero needs 10 saves for 300, while his fellow Francisco, K-Rod Rodriguez, needs 32 to reach that level. Jose Valverde (7) is closing in on 200 career saves as is Jonathan Papelbon (12) and Brian Fuentes (13). Bobby Jenks (27) has a shot if he were to take the role away from Papelbon.

Hudson Street needs one more save for 150, and should be joined by Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria, and possibly Kevin Gregg. Heath Bell and Ryan Franklin, meanwhile, will reach the century barrier.

There you have it. A taste of some of the more well-known milestones that will be smashed, trashed, and bashed this year. And Baseball Digest will be here to tell you all about it.

Rumors, News, and Transactions

Carl Pavano and the Minnesota Twins are said to be on the verge of a new deal.

Ken Rosenthal's sources indicate the Yankees could get a deal done with Andruw Jones today. His agent, Scott Boras, was at Yankee Stadium earlier today for Rafael Soriano's introductory press conference.

In one of the strangest moves, the Tigers yesterday avoided arbitration with Armando Galarraga by agreeing to a new one year deal. Then to make room on the 40 man roster for Brad Penny, they designated Galarraga for assignment. Huh?


  1. "Ivan Rodriguez is just 143 hits away from the mark"


  2. Thanks Srul. Missed that one in the proofing.