Sunday, July 11, 2010

Joba Robba Javy, Now What?


Joba Chamberlain burst on to the scene in 2007 as a fearless, fist pumping, triple digit throwing right-hander who took no prisoners. Boy, have things changed.

Last night's meltdown in Seattle cost the Yankees their seven game winning streak and made fans once again wonder what happened to the previous version of their cult hero. Javier Vazquez may be wondering too since he went toe to toe with Felix Hernandez and exited after seven innings with a 1-0 lead. But he could only helplessly watch as the Mariners pulled out a 4-1 victory due to another under performance by the "chosen one".

The Mariners loaded the bases in the 8th on a pair of hits and an intentional walk (after Chamberlain threw a wild pitch). Chamberlain quickly fell behind 2-0 to Jose Lopez and was forced to come in with a fastball. He got it up in the zone and Lopez launched it out for a game winning grand slam.

Joe Girardi said afterward that he would stand by his 8th inning guy, but you have to figure that Brian Cashman is working behind the scenes to possibly change the Yankees late inning scenario.

The 2007 version of Chamberlain is something the current version can't possibly live up to. An instant folk hero, the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera, and all of the other plaudits thrown out there by fans and the media. (One afternoon host in particular.)

You might not want to ponder the thought, but it's quite possible that Chamberlain isn't that good. That he's an average pitch, or even above average but not as good as the previous incarnation.

Of course it didn't help that the Yankees themselves messed with the kid's head last year, shuttling him between the pen and rotation. Limiting his innings so that even if things were going well he would be removed after three innings because of a pitch count. We all knew he would be better off throwing six innings every 5th day at Scranton, but the Yankees insisted he stay up with the big club. Not only did it mess with Chamberlain psyche and approach, but as a result it unnecessarily taxed the bullpen.

Chamberlain's 2010 season is a bit misleading though if you strictly go by his ERA (5.79). Prior to last night he had three straight scoreless appearances and has two other strings of five or more games without allowing a run. Though holds are not always a true reflection of a performance, Chamberlain has been scored upon only once while recording 18 holds. That figure is tied for the top mark in the American League with Kip Jensen and Daniel Bard.

But when he's bad, Chamberlain is as bad as you can get.

Last night's debacle was the fifth occurrence that Chamberlain has allowed three or more earned runs. Two of his four losses have come when he entered with a lead. I am no fan of Sabermetrics, but for those of you who are, WAR is a big stat. That's Wins Above Replacement. Per Baseball-Reference.com, a WAR of 8 is an MVP, 5+ is All-Star quality, 2+ is a starter, 0-2 is a reserve and less than 0 is less than a replacement player (literally someone from Triple-A or a bench player).

Chamberlain's WAR was 1.2 in 2007 and 3.2 in his full rookie season of 2008. But this year it has dipped all the way down to -0.8. By comparison, Chan Ho Park's is -0.5, and we know how horrible he has been.

So if you're Cashman what do you do?

You get someone else to throw into the 8th inning mix and ease back on the reins on Chamberlain. If you're Joe Girardi, you throw him in the 7th or 6th innings and look for more consistency and confidence. You get Chamberlain to stop chugging a Red Bull as he's exiting the bullpen. (That really can't help, ya know?) You mix and match as you would in other innings rather than rely on one guy.

Damaso Marte has quietly pitched very well over the last two months. With two aboard and one out in the 8th last night, it was a perfect opportunity to bring Marte in to face Russell Branyan, who strikes out against left-handers with alarming regularity. The Mariners have no right-handed hitter sitting on the bench who strikes fear in the hearts of opponents. Girardi could then have countered with David Robertson or whomever to face Lopez.

The reliance on one pitcher to handle a set up inning is absurd. But that's a story for another day.

Relievers to take a look at:

Scott Downs, Tor: The left-hander is much more than a lefty specialist and can close games when needed. Downs' teammates Jason Frasor and Shawn Camp would be lesser options.

Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson, SD: Neither is necessarily available especially with the Padres in the race in the NL West. But one may be if the Padres can acquire another piece to help their team in the stretch run (Hey, Jed Hoyer..Kei Igawa can be your's).

Brad Ziegler, Oak: A righty specialist.

Bobby Jenks, Chi: The White Sox closer is nuts, but still can be nasty most of the time. With Matt Thornton in the Chisox pen, Jenks may be available if Chicago falls out of the race by the trade deadline.

Who else do you think could help?

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