The Rotations - NL East

Mets

Guaranteed Spots: Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, Orlando Hernandez, John Maine, Oliver Perez

The Mets made huge news when they dealt for, arguably, the best pitcher in baseball in Santana. It didn't cost the Mets much in talent, but they are going to have to fork over about $140 million. But the Mets and their soon-to-be new ballpark needed an ace and drawing card, and they got them both in one fell swoop.

Martinez came back from arm surgery to appear in 5 games, and posted a 2.57 ERA with 32 K's in 28 innings. He may not have the velocity he once had, but with Santana's arrival, he no longer has to be the ace.

El Duque has been injury prone, he missed the '06 post-season, but he has made 53 starts over the last 2 years. He did a great job for the Mets last season, posting a 3.72 ERA while holding opponents to a .206 batting average. El Duque is a winner, pure and simple.

Maine blossomed in his 2 seasons in Flushing, after having an up and down time in Baltimore. He wore down in the final months of the season as he far exceed (190 IP) his highest innings total for his career. Maine posted a 15-10 mark and was huge in the 2nd to last night game of the season, went he brilliantly pitched the Mets back into contention with a win over the Marlins. There's no reason to think he won't keep getting better.

Perez has been an enigma throughout his major league career. Early on, it looked like he and Jake Peavy would make a remarkable 1-2 tandem for the Padres for years to come. But during a poor sophomore season, the Pads shipped him to Pittsburgh where he battled control and attitude problems. He was brilliant in 2004, striking out 239 in 196 innings, and posted a 2.98 ERA to go along with a 12-10 record. Maybe it was the huge increase in innings pitched - we'll never know - but Perez pitched his way out of Pittsburgh with miserable '05 and '06 seasons. Though he sometimes backslid, he put up a very good season for the Mets last year - 15-10, 3.56, 174 K's. The Mets will need him to do it again in 2008.

Mike Pelfrey and Tony Armas Jr., who the Mets just signed to a minor league deal, will be among those waiting for an injury or prolonged ineffectiveness to get some starts.


Phillies

Guaranteed Spots: Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, Adam Eaton

Myers was moved to the closer role when Tom Gordon went down last year. He remained in that role when Gordon returned, giving the Phillies a stronger bullpen. But with the off-season acquisition of Brad Lidge, Myers was returned to the rotation. He averaged 206 innings the prior 2 years and should be the rotation's workhorse.

Moyer is beginning his 23rd season in the majors and his 2nd full season in Philly. The 45-yr old isn't what he once was, but he has still thrown 200+ innings for 7 straight seasons. His 5.01 ERA was his highest in 3 years, and strangely, he pitched worse away from the Phillies' hitter-friendly ballpark. He should do fine as the middle man in the rotation.

Hamels is the young stud every team hopes they will develop in their farm system. And he's left-handed to boot. Having just turned 24, the Phillies are looking for even bigger things this year from their soon-to-be ace. Hamels went 15-5, 3.39 last year while striking out 177 in 183 1-3 innings.

Kendrick burst on to the scene last year, making 20 starts in his rookie year. His 10-4 record and 3.87 ERA gave him a 5th place finish in the ROY voting.

Eaton came back from injury to make 30 starts last year, with not very good results. He finished .500 (10-10) and posted an ERA just over 6. The Phillies will hope someone can push him out of that final spot.

One of the pitchers hoping to step up is Chad Durbin, who was signed as a free agent. The 30-yr old had some moderate success as a spot starter for the Tigers in '07. Another candidate for the final spot will be another Durbin- J.D., no relation to Chad. J.D. is another swing man who can either start or relieve, though he has not had success at the major league level.


Nationals

Guaranteed Spots: Shawn Hill, Matt Chico, John Patterson, Jason Bergmann, John Lannan

That should be the starting 5 barring injury- but that's a big "what if". Patterson, Bergmann, and Hill missed large chunks of last season.

Hill was 4-5, 3.42 in a major league career high 97.1 innings pitched. The Nats hope to see the pitcher who posted a 2.68 ERA at Harrisburg ('AA') in 2006.

Chico, just 24, had a semi-successful rookie season, throwing a team-high 167 innings. His 4.63 ERA was slightly better on the road.

After an outstanding 2005, Patterson made just 15 appearances over the next 2 years after having season-ending arm surgeries. He's ready for spring training and the Nats are hoping for a return to prior form.

Bergmann had a decent year, going 6-6, 4.45 in 21 starts. But the native of Neptune, NJ (and a Rutgers attendee) must cut down on his walks and gopher balls allowed. He was hampered last year by hamstring and elbow injuries.

The Nats hope that their young, big lefty, Lannan asserts himself in the 5th spot. The 6'5" rookie made 6 starts, posting a 4.15 ERA, but walked more batters than he struck out. Lannan was very successful pitching at 3 different levels in the minors in '07 and now must translate that success to the majors.

Former Yankee Tyler Clippard along with Collin Balester, Ross Detwiler and Garrett Mock will be trying to make their mark during spring training.


Braves

Guaranteed Spots: John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Tim Hudson, Chuck James

The soon to be 41-yr old Smoltz led the team with a 3.11 ERA and struck out 197. The right-hander (14-8 last season) has put up three straight 200+ inning seasons after returning from the closer role. Barring an injury there's no reason to think he won't put up similar numbers this year.

The prodigal son has returned home, but Glavine is not the same pitcher he was in his Atlanta glory days. Glavine still puts up 200 inning seasons, but walks more hitters and gives up more home runs. He had no fully consistent seasons during his time as a Met. And of course, his final start with the playoffs hanging in the balance was a complete disaster.

Hudson led the team with 16 wins and 224.1 innings pitched. It's hard to believe this will be his 10th season in the majors. His success will help make or break the Braves this season.

James is a solid back end rotation guy; his 11-10, 4.24 mark can be improved upon, but the Braves would probably take the same season this year.

The Braves are hoping that Mike Hampton is healthy enough for a spot in the rotation, but if not, Jo Jo Reyes, Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Bennett and Buddy Carlyle will do battle for the final spot.



Marlins

Guaranteed Spots: Scott Olsen, Andrew Miller, Sergio Mitre, Mark Hendrickson

Olsen just turned 24, and has shown a lot of promise in his 1st two years in the majors. Unfortunately, his maturity level still has some catching up to do. The Marlins need more of the '06 version of Olsen, rather than the '07 model.

Miller was one of the keys in the Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis deal. Miller, still just 22 when the season opens, had mixed results in his 13 starts for the Tigers last year (5-5, 5.63, 56K's in 64 IP). But the kid is only in his 2nd full pro season after a standout career at the U. of North Carolina.

Mitre has a world of talent, but has been oft injured. He made 27 starts last year, eclipsing 100 innings for the first time, and posted a 4.65 ERA. The fish hope he improves upon those numbers this year.

Hendrickson came over as a free agent after 1+ seasons as a Dodger. He split a mediocre season between the pen and rotation, making 15 starts out of this 39 appearances. He's a good back of the rotation guy if you have a good front end. That remains to be seen in Florida.

The 5th spot in the rotation is really up in the air. Josh Johnson is coming off Tommy John surgery and probably won't pitch this season. Anibel Sanchez had surgery for a torn labrum and will probably be starting the season in the minors or extended spring training. Ricky Nolasco had elbow problems that may push him to the bullpen.

That leaves inexperienced prospects to make the rotation or the Marlins could sign a low price free agent that is still available to fill the final spot.

Ranking the Rotations

1. Mets
2. Braves
3. Phillies
4. Marlins
5. Nationals