Breaking Down the Santana Trade

When we first heard the Johan Santana deal announced yesterday, we reacted with a combination of relief (that the Red Sox hadn't landed him) and shock (that's all the Twins got?!). There are a couple of factors though that can play into our final feelings on the trade.

La Velle E. Neal III (what a name!) of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune is reporting that Johan Santana told the Twins he would not waive his no-trade clause if he was not dealt by Tuesday (yesterday). Santana has completely denied similar ultimatums that were attributed to him during this whole process. If it's true than the Twins did indeed have their hands tied in making a deal.
Peter Abraham of the Journal News reported that Twins' GM Bill Smith went back to both the Yankees and Red Sox in one last attempt to get the best deal possible. Both Brian Cashman and Theo Epstein said no to lower packages.

So Smith took the Mets deal which was no fantastic assortment of players. Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and Deolis Guerra. Let's take a look at each of them.

Carlos Gomez has the too much bandied about tag of "5-tool player" thrown around his neck. For those of you who don't know, a 5-tool player is one who grades at high skills in hitting for average, hitting with power, speed, defense, and arm strength. It can pan out in a player like Alex Rodriguez, but more times than not it usually results in players like Michael Coleman, who never translate minor league success to the majors.

Gomez hit .232 in 58 games with the Mets in '07 with 12 stolen bases in 15 attempts. His minor league numbers have never shown the power potential of a 5-tool player, and unless this 22-yr old bulks up, he's not going to either. Like a lot of Latin American ball players, Gomez is a free swinger who strikes out too often, and doesn't walk enough for a guy with his speed.

Whether or not the Twins make him their immediate replacement for Torii Hunter, remains to be seen. Gomez could probably use a full-season at Triple-A, or at the very least, platoon with a left-handed hitter (he only hit .212 against righties) his first year in Minnesota.

Mets fans have been hearing about Phil Humber for quite some time now. The 25-yr old spent 3 season at Rice University before joining the Mets in 2005. In 3 minor league seasons, Humber has a 4.11 ERA. In '07, his first at Triple-A, he went 11-9, 4.27 with 44 walks and 120 Ks in 139 innings pitched. Despite some moderate success, the Mets didn't think he was the answer to their starting rotation woes last season.

Humber did come up for a couple of looks the past 2 years, including a start in the heat of the pennant race in late September. The Nationals tagged him for 5 runs on 6 hits, including a home run, in 4 innings pitched. He'll probably start the season at Triple-A.

Kevin Mulvey is a New Jersey boy, who spent 3 years at Villanova. He split 4 games in '06 at Rookie ball and Double-A, and spent all but one game at Double-A in '07. His numbers weren't overly impressive at 'nova, but he showed promise at Binghamton last year, going 11-10, 3.26 with 43 walks and 110 Ks in 151.2 IP.

Mulvey obviously wasn't in the Mets system long enough to get a real idea of what he can do. He'll join Humber in Triple-A.

Deolis Guerra will turn just 19 on April 17 and has spent 2 years at the 'A' and advanced 'A' levels. The Venezuelan born right-hander went 9-14, 3.28 with 68 walks and 135 Ks in 178.2 innings pitched. It will be a few years before Guerra will have an impact at the major league level. He should start the season in Double-A.

On paper, it looks like the Twins got hosed, but time will tell. Though they will be paying a small fortune to Santana, this was an excellent deal for the Mets.

The only real downside for Yankees fans is having to listen to obnoxious Mets fans crow about Santana on WFAN. But at least we still have Phil Hughes.