Tanaka Gets the Green Light

After weeks of the Japanese media reporting that Masahiro Tanaka would or wouldn't be posted by the Rakuten Golden Eagles, the right-hander got the go ahead to play baseball in the U.S. Now the crazy begins.

The Yankees are expected to back up the Brinks' truck to land Tanaka and make him a long term fixture in their rotation. They'll have plenty of competition from the Red Sox, Cubs, Angels, and whoever else wants to throw their hat in the ring, but the Yankees are expected to blow away the competition with the numbers preceding six zeroes.

The Steinbrenners and GM Brian Cashman have been counting on the 25-year old Tanaka playing in the Major Leagues to shove the team back in the right direction after a disastrous 2013 campaign and get younger in the process as well.

If the Yankees win out, Tanaka would join CC Sabathia (33), Hiroki Kuroda (39), and Ivan Nova (27 next month) in the rotation. The fifth and final spot would likely come down to a competition between Michael Pineda, David Phelps, Adam Warren, Vidal Nuno and anyone else who wants to throw their fastball into the ring.

Tanaka's contract is expected to leave Yu Darvish's six-year, $56MM deal with Texas in the dust. The Yankees could work some side deals as well to for Tanaka's wife, Mai Satoda, who is a Japanese pop singer. "Hey, would you like to play Madison Garden or the Barclays Center?" They should also use Kuroda and Hideki Matsui to recruit the native of  Itami, Hyōgo Prefecture.

Tanaka played for Rakuten in the Nippon Professional Baseball league for seven seasons, compiling a 99-35 mark in 175 career games.  (All but three of which were starts.) Tanaka's performance this past season was phenomenal - he went 24-0 in 27 starts plus a relief appearance. Known as "Makun" or "Ma" by his teammates, the 6'2" righty allowed 30 earned runs (1.27 ERA), 168 hits, walked 30 and struck out 183 in 212 innings pitched. And it wasn't only the second best season of his career.

Two years ago he posted the same ERA in 226.1 innings with 241 strikeouts, 27 walks and 171 hits. His 0.875 WHIP topped the 0.943 from this past season. It sounds like Tanaka has the right mental toughness for the Big Apple. He threw 160 pitches in a complete game loss in the sixth game of the Japanese Championship Series, then came back to save Game 7 the next day with a 15-pitch performance. Tanaka normally throws a fastball that tops out at 96 mph. He was still throwing 92-94 mph in the series finale.

Understandably, after watching a pitcher like Daisuke Matsuzaka wear down in the Major Leagues you have to be concerned about those 160 pitch games. One Major League scout said as much to the NY Times' David Waldstein back in November. Coming to the US in his mid-20's, Tanaka may actually have a much longer career than had he stayed in Japan, since warning bells and whistles (figuratively) go off when a pitcher throws his 100th delivery in a Major League game.

A team like the Yankees should also take special care after watching CC Sabathia's deterioration after many years of high pitch counts and 200+ innings pitched. But that's all for another day. While some slept last night with visions of sugar plum fairies dancing in their heads, Cashman and other GMs dreamt of a Japanese pitcher dancing on the mound in the seventh game of the World Series.

Merry Christmas to all and to all good luck. Masahiro Tanaka certainly doesn't need it right now!

NY Times: On The 6th Day Before Christmas Rakuten Said No To Ma

The Grinch that kept Tanaka

New York Times reporter Ken Belson, citing several Japanese news sources on Thursday morning, reported that the Rakuten Golden Eagles have decided to not allow star pitcher Masahiro Tanaka to post to Major League Baseball.

Reports last night had Rakuten offering Tanaka 80MM yen ($8MM US) to remain in Japan for one more year. That figure could go as high as $12MM, three times the amount Tanaka earned in 2013.

The move would squlech the plans of the Yankees and other teams that were hoping to add a pitcher of Tanaka's magnitude to their starting rotation.

The Yankees should look for a short term fix - a deal for a quality pitcher that will not receive guaranteed money past the 2015 season. This is likely Hiroki Kuroda's last season, though it's been said before, so he could be replaced in 2015 by a pitcher acquired for this coming season. The Yankees should stay away from pitchers like Bronson Arroyo, who are looking for 3-4 year deals.

I'll repeat what I said earlier this week - Yovani Gallardo, MIL or Justin Masterson, CLE. I prefer Masterson.

Not So Fast Tanaka

Despite reports from Sanspo.com, first reported by the LA Times' Dylan Hernandez  and backed up by the Tohuku new service, Masahiro Tanaka has NOT been given the blessing to go stateside by Rakuten Golden Eagles CEO Hiroshi Mikitani. Hernandez reported the latter as well.

In fact, the team has offered Tanaka 80MM yen, the equivalent of $8MM US, to stay in Rakuten for one more year. I'm sure they will play on Tanaka's loyalties and do what ever they can to pressure the 25-year old into staying.

They'll have to do what they can, because $8MM is a pittance compared to what Tanaka stands to make  in the US. The latest from prognosticators has Tanaka getting a deal in excess of $100MM. Yu Darvish,by comparison received a $56MM contract with incentives that could amount to another $4MM.

The beat goes on.

Tanaka Gets the Go Ahead

According to the Daily Tohoku online news service - the Rakuten team is located in the Tohoku region - Rakuten Golden Eagles CEO Hiroshi Mikitani has decided to allowed pitcher Masahiro Tanaka to post to the Major Leagues.

There were no additional details to the report, but it confirms what Sanspo.com reported earlier on Monday. The Yankees are among the teams expected to bid the $20MM maximum posting fee to get a 30 day window to negotiate a Major League contract with Tanaka.

The last Japanese star to post out to a large paycheck was Texas Rangers pitcher Yu Darvish. The right-hander received a six-year, $60MM contract, which was in addition to the $51.7MM posting fee laid out by Texas.

With "just" $20MM headed to Japan if a team works out a deal with Tanaka, the man fans and the media call Mā-kun will likely get a deal that tops Darvish's contract. Perhaps five years, $65MM?

No matter the price, the Yankees will be going all-in on this one.

Rakuten Could Spoil Yankees Hopes

It's Tanaka or Bust

The Rakuten Golden Eagles are reportedly doing their best to talk star pitcher Masahiro Tanaka into staying one more year in the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) league. Rakuten would then use the year to try to sway Tanaka to stay a lot longer than that by making him a big money offer of their own. Even if he leaves after another year, the team will make some additional money off of him in the meantime.

The Yankees are among the teams that are counting on Tanaka getting posted to bolster their starting pitching staff. The Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and others are all expected to bid the max $20MM posting fee to the opportunity to negotiate with Tanaka in the 30 day window of opportunity. (The Golden Eagles CEO Hiroshi Mikitani was said to be furious at the league's owners for approving the new, much lower $20MM fee.)

Tanaka would then get in the middle of a bidding war that could crazier than when the Yankees and Red Sox went after Jose Contreras back in the 2002-2003 off-season.

Rakuten would have been much more willing to post Tanaka had the fee agreement not changed from a free for all to a low (by their standards) ceiling. The Red Sox bid over $51MM for Daisuke Matsuzaka prior to the 2007 season and the Texas Rangers bid slightly more than that to get the rights to the last young star pitcher from Japan, Yu Darvish, before the 2012 season.

Should Tanaka stay in Japan, the Yankees rotation will have a huge hole to fill behind CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, and Ivan Nova. While the front office may be fine, for now, with Michael Pineda, David Phelps, Adam Warren, etc., battling for the fifth and final spot in the rotation, they realize that the rest of their rotation is not guaranteed to be successul.

Sabathia struggled mightily in 2013, Nova was back to his 2011 form, but the Yankees need him to maintain that consistency, and Kuroda will be 39-years old when the season starts.

The free agent market on pitching is slim pickings. The Yankees reportedly spoke with Bronson Arroyo, but he made over $16MM last season and the soon-to-be 37-year old (February) will be looking for one more big score.

Matt Garza has never impressed me over a full season and was paid in excess of $10MM last year. He'll be looking for 3-4 years in excess of $45MM. No thanks. The Diamondbacks and Angels are said to be the front-runners for his services. (The only benefit of the Yankees getting Garza would be to make him shave that ugly excuse of a goat beard - yes, goat not goatee.)

Ubaldo Jimenez was fantastic in the second half of the 2013 season for Cleveland, but it was the best he'd pitched by far since 2010. He's 29, but he's looking for way too many years and too many dollars. Let some other team take that gamble  based on a half season.

Paul Maholm is a decent back end of the rotation starter and he comes relatively cheaply, but he's not good enough for what the Yankees need.

Ervin Santana is another pitcher looking for a huge windfall, but is exremely inconsistent. If you've noticed, teams aren't exactly banging down his door.

Barry Zito? If that were to happen the men from Bellevue should take Cashman away in a straight jacket.

If Tanaka stays, the Yankees will have to swing a deal. They could revisit Homer Bailey, though he's more likely to be dealt at the trade deadline (if he's dealt at all) with free agency waiting in the wings after the season. He would also come at a heavy price in prospects...yes, the Yankees do have good ones despite what you have heard.

I still like the idea of Justin Masterson. who will also be a free agent after the season.  He made a little under $6MM in 2013. He's still arbitration eligible and should get a big raise after he made his first All-Star team this past season.

James Shields is the ace of the Royals staff and is set to make $13.5MM this season, his final before he is a free agent. If the Royals were to deal Shields it would be at the trade deadline as well.

Yovani Gallardo would be an interesting acquisition. There were a number of rumors during the last trade deadline, but Milwaukee hung on to the right-hander. Gallardo has 10 team no-trade clause that includes the Yankees, but since the Brewers have only made the playoffs twice in the last 30 years, maybe he would be willing to waive it.

Gallardo is in the fourth year of a possible five year deal that could net him $42.5MM when all is said and done. He'll earn $11.25MM in 2014 and there is a team option of $13MM in 2015, but it's accompanied by a mere $600,000 buyout.

Gallardo had the opportunity to void the option had he finished in the top three in NL Cy Young voting on more than one occassion. (Six points based accumulated based on five pts for winning the Cy Young, three pts for a second place finish, and one point for a third place finish) Gallardo received votes on just one occasion when he finished seventh in the 2011 voting, so that's not a concern.

What is a concern is Gallardo demanding the option be picked up in order to waive his no-trade clause. A twist would be to waive the no-trade clause if the option year was bought out ahead of time. Gallardo would likely rather hit the free agent market again than get tied up for one more year in a place he may not want to play.

So there you have it. It's pretty much Tanaka or bust for the Yankees...at least until the July trade deadline.

Yankees to Blow Away 189 Limit if Tanaka Comes Stateside

Hal Steinbrenner told the media Thursday that the $189MM target for the 2014 total payroll and extras was always a "goal, not a mandate." While the Yankees' employees may have gotten that impression, I don't know of too many (or any) fans who thought that was the case. Especially with the bargain basement moves Brian Cashman made last season.

With the possibility of the Rakuten Golden Eagles (Nippon Professional Baseball) posting star pitcher Masahiro Tanaka in the not so distant future, the Yankees will certainly do everything they can to land him. Which means they will blow the doors off the  $189MM limit.

Former MLB pitcher C.J. Nitkowski reported Friday on MLB.com that Rakuten owner Hiroshi Mikitani was furious at the NPB's 11 other owners for accepting MLB's proposal of a $20MM maximum posting fee. (There are rumors that the league may supplement the fee to make it more acceptable for a player of Tanaka's magnitude, but it is just a rumor for now). Mikitani and club president Yozo Tachabani (prefers Tanaka to stay in Japan) doesn't have much time to finalize their decision either way since spring training in Japan begins February 1.

The old posting system was accomplished via secret bids with the winner given an opportunity to negotiate a Major League contract with the player in question.  The new $20MM cap will allow more than one team to negotiate if multiple teams bid the same amount. That will certainly be the case with Tanaka, who was 24-0 this past season.

Teams that bid the the top amount will have 30 days to work out a Major League contract with the player. Besides the Yankees, the Red Sox and Cubs are also reportedly set to aggressively go after  the 25-year old right-hander.

Part of MLB's internal negotiations were about whether the new lesser fee would count towards the luxury tax. (The old posting system fee did not.) The new fee will reportedly not count towards the luxury tax either, but I have not read or heard a definitive outcome of  that part of the discussion.

Either way, the Yankees can forget the magic 189...whether it be a goal or a mandate. We know who's on first, but what's on second?