Yankees Can't Afford To Put This One In The Ell Column

When Jacoby Ellsbury and the Yankees agreed to a seven-year, $153MM contract this past offseason, a very loud, "WHAT?" was said in unison in the baseball world. For Jacoby Ellsbury? The guy who had one very good season and was known more for his injury plagued years. That Jacoby Ellsbury?

It's only the first year of his contract, but the Yankees would be nowhere without Ellsbury, unquestionably the team's MVP. (Masahiro Tanaka would have been in the mix had he not injured his elbow - be very glad they are shutting him down now after he experienced soreness in his elbow after his latest rehab throw.)

Ellbsury had the misfortune Friday night to slide into the league in the leg of Toronto Blue Jays' catcher Dioner Navarro. Not only was Ellsbury out at the plate, but sprained/jammed his ankle. Tests results came back negative, but Ellsbury is hurting. He sat out Saturday's game with Toronto, and though he feels he'll play on Sunday, a conservative Joe Girardi is more likely to give him another day off. Especially since the Yankees have their next to last off day on Monday.

It's an especially painful loss for a team that has had trouble scoring runs all season. The former Red Sox outfielder has been on a tear of late - 11-22 (.500), 4 HR, 9 RBI, 6 runs in his last six games - and entered Sunday leading the team with 64 RBI and 37 steals, and is second to Brett Gardner with 64 runs scored.

Like everyone else, Ellsbury has had his dry spells too. He hit just .231 in May with a .664 OPS. But as the race for the second wild card has heated up, so has Ellsbury. In 25 starts and one substitute appearance in August, his slash line is .317/.360/.525 with 5 HR, 16 RBI, 9 SB (without being thrown out), 32 hits, and 13 runs scored. Girardi has used him primarily in the three-hole in the lineup this season, but as of late has inserted him into the lead off spot. Ellsbury has a robust .926 OPS at the top of the order, compared to a .728 OPS batting behind #2, Derek Jeter in the two-hole.

Over the years, many teams have thrown left-handers at the Yankees so as not to let them take advantage of the short porch in Yankee Stadium's right field, but Ellsbury has hit better - nearly .100 points higher in his OPS - against southpaws rather than right-handers. Sunday's game is no different, though it's on the road. The Blue Jays have lefty J.A. Happ scheduled to make a start. The Yankees can only hope the first batter he faces is Jacoby Ellsbury. Otherwise, the Yankees are already going into the game trying to come from behind.

Yankees Closer to Cellar Than Penthouse

Indeed, the decision to watch a movie last night was the correct one. The Yankees who looked foolish at times Friday night, looked foolish for the entire 11-3 loss to the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday's nationally televised game. Starter David Phelps was hammered and didn't make it past the 33r
d inning. It's probably time to try out Ivan Nova again tin that spot.

Suddenly the Bronx Bombers-less are 5 1/2 games out of first and just 2 games out of the AL East basement. Things have take quite a turn in the division over the last two weeks. Like the Yankees, the Boston Rex Sox and Orioles have gone through up and down periods. So much so that despite losing 7 of 10, the Yankees have dropped just two games in the standings.

Meanwhile, everybody's pre-season bandwagon pick, the Toronto Blue Jays, finally came to life. They reeled off 11 straight wins and got back into contention. They did despite the fact that the lowest ERA by a starter (R.A. Dickey) is 4.72. The team is not short on power, though, with Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, J.P. Arencibia, and Colby Rasmus contributing to the damage.

The Blue Jays are also getting healthy. Jose Reyes is back after being out since April 12 with a badly injured ankle. Though the results have been mixed, Josh Johnson is throwing the ball better after a stint on the DL. The team has also gotten an unexpected boost from Adam Lind (.938 OPS), who has bounced back and forth between the Majors and the minors  when he struggled at the plate.

The Tampa Bay Rays have stayed the course. The team has produced good to great pitching for years, though they end up dealing away the talent when the big money is due. Matt Moore started out the season like a house afire, winning his first eight decisions. Alex Cobb was having a marvelous season until he took a line drive to the head in mid-June. Last year's AL CY Young winner, David Price, will be back from the DL shortly with the hope that he'll throw better than he has all year. (1-4, 5.24 in 9 starts)

The team has called up Wil Myers to help the offense, which still doesn't produce nearly enough. Yet they are still in contention, 6 games back of Boston for the division lead, and 3 1/2 out of the wild card.

The Yankees need to get better fast or Brian Cashman best get some better fill-ins, or this team's season will done by end of July trade deadline.

Ichiro Rolls a 7, Yankees Sweep

All any Yankees fan talked about prior to Tuesday's rained out game with the Toronto Blue Jays and Wednesday's make up, was the return of Andy Pettitte. And though the Texan maneuvered his way through five shutout innings, all anyone talked about after the conclusion of the day-night doubleheader sweep of the Jays was the big day Ichiro Suzuki had.

The 38-yr old outfielder went 7-8, stole four bases, and knocked in the game winner in the night cap as the Yankees defeated Toronto 4-2 and 2-1. The Baltimore Orioles improved to 15-0 in extra innings with a 3-1 win over the Seattle Mariners in 11 innings, so the Yankees lead is back to a half-game over the O's in the AL East.

Suzuki was acquired at the trade deadline after hitting .261 with the Seattle Mariners, well below his career average. The Japanese native's average with the Yankees jumped from .288 to .317 after his big day. In the opener, Suzuki hit lead off, had three hits, and scored a pair of runs.

In the nightcap, hitting out of the eight-hole Suzuki snapped a 1-1 tie with an RBI single in the bottom of the 8th inning. It completed a 4-4 game and gave him the chance to steal his fourth base of the game, which he did with no problem. He had stolen just six bases in his previous 51 games with New York.

The Yankees didn't know what to expect from Pettitte in the opener, other than the knowledge that he would compete. He had some early struggles, but managed to end the 5th inning on his 75th pitch, which is just where Joe Girardi and pitching coach Larry Rothschild wanted him to be. 46 of those pitches were for strikes and only three outs were recorded via a fly ball. Pettitte finished his day with nine ground outs and three strikeouts to improve to 4-3.

David Robertson got tagged for a pair of runs in the 8th inning that shaved the lead to 3-2, but Suzuki came through again, this time on defense. Rajai Davis ripped a bases loaded line drive to left off of Rafael Soriano, but Suzuki was there to snare it.

Girardi used six relievers in the opener so it was imperative that David Phelps give the Yankees some innings length in the night game. He did just that, with a 6.2 innings performance, and left with the game tied at one apiece. Phelps allowed just three hits, walked three, and struck out six.

Cody Eppley retired the only batter he faced to get his first win as a Yankee (1-2) and Soriano picked up another save, his 42nd of the season.

Poor Play, Worse Umpiring Cost Yankees

Less than 24 hours after we all reveled in Russell Martin's summer slumber break out, the Yankees slept walk their way to a 5-4 loss to the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards.

The Yankees wasted opportunities, starter CC Sabathia couldn't hold a 2-0 lead, Mark Reynolds hit another home run, and then to top things off, first base umpire Jerry Meals blew a call that could eventually cost the Yankees a playoff spot.

Down two in the 9th inning, the Yankees loaded the bases with no one out. Nick Swisher continued his slide (0-24) when he bounced into a  force out, but it did drive in a run to cut the lead to one. With runners on the corners and one down, Mark Teixeira, in the lineup for the first time in 12 days due to a strained a calf, hit a chopper to second base.

Robert Andino quickly threw to shortstop J.J. Hardy, who then turned two with a throw to first baseman Reynolds. Only one problem. Teixeira, who according to mlb.com's Bryan Hoch dove head first because he felt his calf injury act up, clearly beat the throw from Hardy.

Meals (who should be denied some after tonigh)t, however, punched out Teixeira for the game ending twin killing. Teixeira and first base coach Mick Kelleher raged at Meals, but Joe Girardi flipped his gum and headed to the clubhouse.  More on that later.

The Yankees had taken a 2-0 lead against Joe Saunder on a sac fly by Alex Rodriguez in the 1st inning and an RBI double by Ichiro Suzuki in the 2nd. But Sabathia, who has not been his dominant self all year, gave up back-to-back home runs to Reynolds and Lew Ford to tie the game.  Hardy added an RBI double and a solo home run and Ford chipped in with a ribbie single to give the O's a 5-2 lead after six.

A-Rod, who narrowly missed a home run earlier in the game, did connect for one in the 8th inning off of Pedro Strop. The Orioles reliever had been shaky in two previous outings against the Yankees, including a loss in last week's series at Yankee Stadium.  That led to the 9th inning drama and  a call that could haunt the Yankees for the remainder of the season.

Elliot Johnson Finally Pays Off Debt, Yankees Back in 1st

Let's go into the way back machine, back to Spring Training, March 8, 2008. Yankees playing the Tampa Bay Rays in Tampa. Elliot Johnson of the Rays races to the plate and barrels over and through Yankees up and coming catcher Francisco Cervelli.

Cervelli's wrist was broken, Joe Girardi was livid, and Joe Maddon and the Rays made a statement that they weren't going to be stepped on any more. The play led to an eventual brawl when Shelley Duncan slid in spikes high on Akinori Iwamura four days later. Cervelli's season was pretty much done- he was limited to just 27 games in the minor leagues in 2008.

It took four years, but Elliot Johnson finally said he was sorry. Well, ok, not really, but his throwing error in the 7th inning gave the Yankees the lead back for good and helped them reclaim sole possession of first place.

Hiroki Kuroda was handed 3-1 and 4-3 leads, but couldn't hold either. But a slumping Andruw Jones singled off Rays' starter Matt Moore to start the top of the 7th. Steve Pearce followed with a single of his own before Jayson Nix sacrificed pinch-runner Ichiro Suzuki and Pearce into scoring position.

Former Yankee Kyle Farnsworth got a ground ball from Derek Jeter, but second baseman Johnson's throw sailed wide of catcher Jose Lobaton. Not only did Suzuki score, but Pearce raced home with a second run.

The Rays put two men aboard against Boone Logan and David Robertson in the 8th, but D-Rob got Matt Joyce to pop out to end the inning. The 9th was Rafael Soriano time and the closer untucked his jersey for the first time in days after he retired the Rays in order for his 36th save.

Notes

While the Rays fell back to 2.5 games out, the Orioles dropped back into second place, 1 game out after a 6-4 loss to Toronto. The Yankees and O's begin a four game series in Baltimore on Thursday.

And Then There Was One

Saturday seems so long ago. On Saturday, the Yankees got a gift from the Baltimore Orioles. A victory they never should have had. It was a win that the Yankees and their faithful hoped would kick start them towards better baseball. It wasn't to be.

Sunday's 8-3 loss was like returning a gift for some piece of schlock. A game they could have won had Phil Hughes not given up two mammoth home runs to the Orioles' Mark Reynolds. The second of which he never should have been in the game to give up.  The blast turned a 3-2 Yankees lead into a 5-3 deficit.

Joe Girardi must be in hog heaven right now. With the rosters expanded, the man with the binder can mix and match to his heart's content. But he failed to pull the trigger in time on Saturday and let Hughes face Reynolds. The Orioles first baseman had already hit a ball 9,000 ft earlier in the game (that's not a typo, it really was that far).  And then the bullpen, led by the consistently horrid Joba Chamberlain poured gasoline all over the burning fire. The Yankees lead had shrunk to two games ahead of Baltimore and three and one-half ahead of Tampa Bay.

After the game the Yankees jetted down to west Florida for a big three game series with the Rays before they  head back north for four games in Camden Yards with the Orioles.  Monday's Labor Day match up had CC Sabathia going up against James Shields.

The Yankees generally don't play well in the Warehouse that Ugliness Built, and CC Sabathia had won just three games (five losses, five no-decisions) in his 13 starts at the Trop entering today's contest. Shields entered play just 6-13, 4.58 in 24 career starts against the Yankees. But considering the Yankees have been unable to hit unproven rookies, over the hill veterans, and everything in between, you knew that they would probably would have a tough time with a quality starter like Shields.

The theory proved out as Shields allowed just five hits over eight innings and the Rays scored in the bottom of the 8th for a 4-3 victory to move with in 2.5 of the Yankees. In doing so, they also helped out the Orioles, who are now just one game back of the Yankees for the AL East lead after a win over Toronto.

The once reliable, fairly rested Yankees bullpen is now the overworked and an inconsistent horror show. David Robertson, who has not been quite right since returning from the DL on June 14, took the loss after he gave up three hits in one inning of work.

The Rays like to run and usually steal at will when facing New York. Jeff Keppinger led of the home half of the 8th with a single, but pinch-runner Rich Thompson was thrown out trying to steal second base by Russell Martin.  After Roberterson retired Ben Francisco for the second out, Ryan Roberts safely reached first base with a single and promptly stole the Rays' third base in four attempts on the day.

Light-hitting Chris Giminez entered the game with a .203 batting average, but singled home Roberts with the go ahead run. The Yankees had a chance in the 9th when Eric Chavez reached on a one out error and pinch-runner Eduardo Nunez stole second. But Raul Ibanez grounded out and closer Fernando Rodney (41 saves) struck out pinch-hitter Curtis Granderson with the tying run stranded 90 ft. from home plate.

Notes

Alex Rodriguez returned to the lineup for the first time since he broke his wrist on July 25. He DH'ed and went 1-4 with a bloop single and a run scored.

Giminez had singled in a run earlier in the day against Sabathia, who also allowed a solo home run to B.J. Upton that gave the Rays an early 2-0 lead. The Yankees scored three times in the 4th inning and took the lead when Russell Martin slid head first into first base to beat the throw. It was an up and down day for the Yankees catcher, who was 2-3 with an RBI and stole a base, but was able to just throw out one would-be base stealer (of course much of that was the fault of Sabathia and Robertson).

O's Give Yankees Christmas in August

It wasn't Phelps' birthday, but he'll take it.

The Yankees were headed to another boring loss Saturday afternoon when, out of the goodness of their hearts, the Baltimore Orioles handed them the baseball game. Hopefully, after the game Joe Girardi sent a thank you note to Buck Showalter. It's the proper thing to do when someone gives such a tasteful gift.

The Yankees trailed 3-1 in the 7th inning after a shaky start from David Phelps (6 free passes, 3 ER in 4.1 IP) and a lack of hitting from a lineup that looked like it belonged in a future Old Timers Day. Then the magic happened, a magic we haven't seen too often in the Bronx this year.

Skipper Buck Showalter left starter Wei-Yin Chen in just a tad too long and the normally reliable bullpen and defense didn't get the job done.

Chen had allowed just two hits to that point- a 4th inning solo home run by Robinson Cano and a harmless single in the 6th inning by Nick Swisher. He retired Andruw Jones (seriously, still batting Jones in the clean up spot? In case you haven't noticed, Joe Girardi, that was last year that Jones killed lefties, not this year.) to start the inning, before Steve Pearce reached on a single.

No worries, Russell Martin flew out and Chen was about to finish up his day and get ready to watch Jim Johnson and company save the ball game. But the left-hander walked Jayson Nix and was kept in to face the right-handed hitting Eduardo Nunez, who had just been recalled from the minors. YES' Michael Kay and Ken Singleton speculated that it could be the biggest at-bat of Nunez's career, given the Yankees current circumstances.  They weren't wrong and Nunez came through with a broken bat bloop that landed softly in the outfield for an RBI single.

Showalter sent for hard throwing right-hander Pedro Strop to face Ichiro Suzuki with the tying and go ahead runs on base. Strop had been dynamite all year, but in his prior two games, the native of San Cristobal in the Dominican Republic had allowed three runs and five hits in 1.1 innings pitched. Hits weren't a problem against the Yankees, but Strop walked Ichiro Suzuki to load the bases and then lost a battle to Derek Jeter, that resulted in another walk and a tie ball game.

With left-hander Brian Matusz warmed up in the pen, Showalter stuck with Strop despite the fact that Swisher has hit righties at a better rate than when he's in the other batters' box. Perhaps Showalter was thinking about Swisher's "Golden Sombrero" in the series opener. Swisher lined a one-hopper that ate up shortstop J.J. Hardy, who compounded matters when he bobbled a second attempt at making a play. The error allowed the Yankees to take the lead for the first time in the series.

Then it came down to the Yankees bullpen and they were perfect. David Robinson retired the side in order in the 8th and Rafael Soriano struck out a pair in the 9th for his 35th save and an untucked shirt for a well done performance.

Notes

The victory moved the Yankees back to three games ahead of the O's entering Sunday's series finale. Phil Hughes will be pitted against red-hot Chris Tillman.

Curtis Granderson struck out in the 2nd inning and didn't return to the field due to a tight hamstring. The Yankees certainly don't need any additional injuries to their already weakened lineup and, thankfully, an MRI revealed no structural damage. The Grandy Man will be considered day-to-day for the moment.

The Yankees' pen did a fantastic job; in addition to Robertson and Soriano, Cody Eppley retired the only man he faced in the 5th inning and Boone Logan tossed two scoreless innings for the win. Baltimore only had one hit after the 5th inning.

David Phelps entered the game with a 2.7 walks per 9 innings average. He also averaged 9.4 K's per 9 innings, but picked up just 3 K's.

Blunder Ball in the Bronx; Help on the way?

It's been noted a number of times that the Yankees had a 10 game lead in the AL East after they shut out the Toronto Blue Jays on July 18. The Yankees have gone 18-22 since, which really isn't all that bad, until you realize the team had winning streaks of four and three games during the stretch. Which then means, they are 11-22 in the other 33 games and that is bad..very bad baseball.

That bad baseball continued in the Bronx Friday night as the Yankees bored their fans to a 6-1 loss that dropped their lead to just two games in front of Baltimore. With no Alex Rodriguez (began a rehab assignment last night) or Mark Teixeira (hoping to play next weekend) in the lineup, opposing pitchers have been able to work around Robinson Cano. Joe Girardi has been forced to bat  players like Andruw Jones (.207 avg, .725 OPS) or little tested Steve Pearce. .

Hiroki Kuroda has been the Yankees best pitcher in the second half, but he put himself in a hole in the 2nd inning when he allowed a 2-run home run to Mark Reynolds for a 3-0 Orioles lead.  Kuroda worked into the 9th, but allowed a home run to J.J. Hardy and another home run to Reynolds

The Yankees made Orioles starter Miguel Gonzalez lool like Jim Palmer in his prime; the punch-less wonders managed just five hits and only scored on a solo home run by Curtis Granderson in the 9th. Gonzalez also beat the Yankees back on July 30 at YS as well.

The Yankees will get some help when the rosters expand on Saturday, but none of the players coming up swings a big stick. Catcher Francisco Cervelli finally returns to the Bronx, much to the glee of his large female following. Eduardo Nunez was also recalled and is scheduled to DH on Saturday.

Pitchers Cory Wade, Adam Warren, and Justin Thomas, and outfielder Chris Dickerson are also being recalled. To make room on the 40-man roster (one spot was needed), the Yankees designated Ramiro Pena for assignment.

Full Count Pitch - Don't Count Your Wicked Awesomes Just Yet

Many pundits think the Red Sox are a lock in the AL East, but FCP is here to give you some food for thought.

Listening to/reading ESPN or other media outlets you would think the Boston Red Sox would not have to play one game in 2011 to capture the AL East title. The experts see the addition of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to a healthy lineup and think “1,000 runs scored and a dominant team”. Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman reported the other day that one AL Scout said, “I don’t see how Red Sox lose the AL East.”

Hang on, unnamed source; I can see a few reasons how they might lose and I’m going to tell you and everyone else. Let’s start with the Red Sox’ starting pitching. The quintet of Jon Lester, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka looks pretty good on paper, but let’s take a closer look.

There’s no question that Lester is an ace, a #1 stud, who is easy to root for given that he conquered cancer. But he does struggle in April (16 starts 3-5 and a career worst 4.58 ERA) and that could have an overall effect on the team’s start. Lester will be fine as the weather gets warm, though, and is one of the most reliable starters in baseball. John Lackey, on the other hand, is not the same pitcher he was with the Angels. His ERA has steadily risen over the last three seasons from 3.75 to his worst ERA in six seasons (4.40) last year. The league average against him has also gone from .260 to .277 over the same time period, and his strikeouts per nine innings has gone from 8.6 in 2005 to 6.5 in 2011.

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BD Hot Stove: Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes | Baseball Digest

D Hot Stove: Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes | Baseball Digest

It’s time to check in on the AL East and see what progress or lack of progress the teams have made.

Champion of the Winter Meetings: The Boston Red Sox clearly claim this title. First they swung a deal to bring the powerful bat of Adrian Gonzalez to Beantown and then signed the speedy Carl Crawford to a free agent deal. Post winter meetings, GM Theo Epstein has worked on stocking the bullpen. He’s added Bobby Jenks, Dan Wheeler, and Matt Albers and will still look to add another lefty (Felix Doubront is the sole left-hander in the pen at the moment).

Where’d everybody go?: The Tampa Rays knew this would happen, but it still has to be painful for manager Joe Maddon to see his team being dismantled. Crawford and Wheeler are in Boston. 1st baseman Carlos Pena went to the Chicago Cubs. Shortstop Jason Bartlett was dealt to the Padres. Set up man Joaquin Benoit went to Detroit. Lefty Randy Choate signed with the Marlins. Brignac will replace Bartlett and there’s still very good starting pitching, but some major holes need to be filled.

Standing Still: The NY Yankees had a chance, but it turns out they never really had a chance, to land Cliff Lee. While Boston’s offense and pen got stronger, the Yankees have been unable to fill their biggest needs, starting pitching and bullpen help. Andy Pettitte has yet to determine if wants to play again. Kerry Wood wanted a sizable “donation” from the Yankees, but instead gave the Cubs a hometown discount. Jon Rauch should be on the Yankees radar. The Yankees did add a new starting catcher, Russell Martin, with Jorge Posada taking on full time DH duty. It remains to be seen whether or not minor leaguer Jesus Montero will have an impact in 2011.

Oh Canada: The Blue Jays dealt their top starter, Shaun Marcum, for a top 2nd base prospect in the Brewers’ Brett Lawrie. A good deal for both squads. The Blue Jays are counting on their stud, Kyle Drabek, to earn a spot in the rotation some time during the 2011 season.

The Jays lost reliable set up man/closer Scott Downs, 1st baseman Lyle Overbay, and catcher John Buck, who enjoyed his best season, to free agency. As possible additions, the Jays signed 1st baseman Mike Jacobs and outfielder Corey Patterson to minor league deals. It’ll be difficult to compete with those plusses and minuses.

Hot L Baltimore: It’s been a tough off-season for the once proud Orioles. Players just don’t want to sign with a team that has been floundering in the AL East for so long. The O’s did get shortsop J.J. Hardy in a deal with the Twins and slugger/whiffer Mark Reynolds from the Diamondbacks. The latter deal cost them David Hernandez, but dealing the pitcher for some more offense was worth it.

Rumors, News, and Transactions

The Angels have reportedly dropped out of the running, for now, for 3rd baseman Adrian Beltre. The free agent is demanding a sixth year guaranteed contract.

Brandon Webb is said to be weighing offers, with either the Rangers, Cubs, or Nationals being the right-hander’s final destination.

It's Time To Roll The Dice On Greinke

You should never make a move in reaction to another's move unless your playing chess or at war, and when I say war I really mean war (Note to Kellen Winslow Jr.).

Brian Cashman made a number of poor moves last winter. Nick Johnson chief among them. This off-season the main focus has been on Cliff Lee. We all know how that panned out. But that had nothing to do with Cashman, though some feel otherwise. Lee never wanted to play in NY and for that matter didn't want to return to Texas either. I doubt Nolan Ryan is getting vilified in Arlington.

More importantly, the Yankees chief rival in the AL East has gotten stronger. Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez have replaced Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre in the lineup. That's a big plus for the Red Sox especially since, at the moment, the Yankees have no left-hander in the starting rotation.

So what's an elfin, building rappelling GM to do? Go hard after Zack Greinke. The Royals righty has decided he's had enough of bad baseball in Kansas City. The team has no hope for contending especially since ownership is putting their luxury tax dollars right into their own pockets.

We all know that Greinke has been dealing with anxiety issues. He's not the only one in major league baseball or in life to do so. Not all have gone public with their inner demons. It's now a trendy thing too, but it's still taboo in many circles to admit to "mental" issues. People hear the word mental and they think psychotic which is absurd. Some of us deal with anxiety, depression, or other psychological issues on a daily basis. That's what therapy and/or meds are for, unless your Tom Cruise of course.

The Yankees rotation right now is CC Sabathia (A+), Phil Hughes (B), A.J. Burnett (A, B, C, D, F depending on the day; hell, depending on the inning). My feeling is Andy Pettitte will be back, but until he makes his mind up, and decides he likes the money figure, that's up in the air. The rest is Ivan Nova (high upside, little experience), Sergio Mitre (experience, mediocre), and a bunch of kids who aren't ready for prime time.

Felix Hernandez isn't going anywhere according to the Seattle Mariners hierarchy. The remaining free agent starters aren't front end guys, unless you count Carl Pavano. Don't make me laugh.

As the headline says, it's time for the Yankees and Brian Cashman to roll the dice on Zack Greinke. Perhaps they have studied reports about Greinke's well-being. We know that playing in the plain states is not the same as playing in the Big Apple. NYC has chewed up many a player (Yes, Bobby Bonilla had the smile wiped off his face), who thought they could handle it. But Greinke isn't the same guy he was three years ago. People get past the things holding them back and they get better. I know from experience.

Greinke had his ups and downs this past season on the mound, but playing for a bad team with little fan support doesn't help. Playing with a passionate fan base, with a lineup that can hit, and with a defense can support you will do wonders for your game. Yes, he will have to listen to monotonous questions about his well being. It's best to hold a press conference with no or little questions (the Yankees can see to that) and get it out of the way immediately if they land him.

Greinke won't come cheaply. Possibly Jesus Montero. Ivan Nova. Brandon Laird. Andrew Backman. Delin Betances. Gary Sanchez Hector Noesi. Those are names I'm throwing out..it won't take all of them.

Greinke makes $11.5M in 2011 and $13.5M in 2012. That's $25M off the Royals payroll, which means the Yankees shouldn't have to give up as much either if the Royals were taking some of the money on.

The time is now. The Rays are going to be considerably weaker than the last year. The Red Sox offense has gotten stronger, their pen better with the addition of Bobby Jenks, but their rotation still has questions. Jon Lester is a stud. Josh Beckett is coming off an awful year, which included injury. John Lackey is on the downside. Clay Buchholz was magnificent, but can he repeat? Dice-K, Tim Wakefield? More awful than good.

Only one team should make it out of the west, but the White Sox and Twins will battle for both the AL Central and Wild Card, which means the Yankees MUST bolster their starting rotation and bullpen in order to REALLY compete in the AL East and for the Wild Card.

So roll the dice Brian Cashman, roll the dice. Show the Yankees fan base you have the stomach for it.

Yankees and Rays In Flat Footed Tie

Zack Greinke gave the Yankees a better chance to win the AL East when he dominated the Tampa Bay Rays in a 3-2 Kansas City Royals win. The AL East leaders are both 94-65 with three games left this weekend.

The Yankees begin a series in Boston Friday night with Andy Pettitte facing Daisuke Matsuzaka. A.J. Burnett goes against Clay Buchholz on Saturday and Phil Hughes and John Lackey finish things up on Sunday.

The Rays won 10 of 18 meetings with the Yankees so if the teams finish in a tie the Rays will be the AL East title holders.

CC Doesn't Flinch in a Pinch

Written for Baseball Digest.

With his team sputtering through the month of September, manager Joe Girardi wasn’t fooling around when it came to last night’s New York Yankees – Toronto Blue Jays game. Girardi altered his pitching plans to send ace CC Sabathia to the mound and the big man rewarded his skipper and his teammates with a dominant performance that clinched a playoff spot for the ball club.

Alex Rodriguez knocked in a pair of runs and Derek Jeter scored three times as the Yankees topped the Blue Jays 6-1. The story of the game without a doubt though was the performance of Sabathia, who got knocked around in his last start against Tampa Bay. He allowed two hits through the first eight innings, both by Travis Snider (Who also supplied the lone Toronto run with a solo home run), before putting the first two hitters aboard in the 9th. It wasn’t a save situation, but again Girardi was taking no chances- enter Sandman. Mariano Rivera retired the final two hitters to preserve Sabathia’s 21st win of the season and set off a celebration as the Yankees clinched a playoff spot for the 14th time in 15 years.

The Yankees remained in second place in the AL East as the Rays also clinched a playoff spot with a shutout of the Baltimore Orioles. The Rays had their ace, David Price (19-6), going as well in the 5-0 win over the O’s.

As champagne was sprayed about in the visitor’s locker room, Girardi would only confirm one thing- CC Sabathia will get the ball in Game 1 of the Division series. All that remains to be seen is who the Yankees opponent will be and whether or not they have home field advantage.

Prediction and Preview Time - AL East

It's that time of year again. The pretenders (the non-Chrissie Hynde Pretenders) will fall by the way side and the cream of the baseball crop will rise to the top. Time for some AL and NL previews and some post-season award predictions.

AL East

Why not start off with the toughest division in baseball - no, not the NL Central. The AL East is the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. <--Period. Forget the Orioles. Forget the Blue Jays. They aren't going to sniff first place once the calendar turns to May. It likely it won't even take that long, but you can be tied for first with 1-0 mark. The Yankees have plenty on the line and some significant changes from last season. Gone are Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui, two components of the team's 27th world championship. Added is Javier Vazquez to strengthen a solid rotation. Phil Hughes won a battle for the 5th starter spot, meaning Joba Chamberlain will be working out of the bullpen on a full-time basis.

Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson try to fill the void left by Damon and Matsui and the Yankees have a healthy Alex Rodriguez to start the season.

Question marks surround left field where Brett Gardner and Randy Winn will share most of the time, Johnson's health (that's unsavory sounding no matter how you spell it out), the lack of a veteran backstop for Jorge Posada, and the overall aging of a lot of the key players on the team.

The Red Sox had a 7-0 series advantage over the Yankees at one point last season. But April baseball doesn't make title winners. The Sox won 95 games, but still finished a distance eight games behind their NY rivals. Then came a three game sweep at the hands of the LA Angels, a team Boston normally manhandled in the post-season, in the wildcard series.

Injuries started to take their toll as the regular season wore on and still have some impact as the team enters the 2010 season. Starter Daisuke Matsuzaka will start the season on the DL and perennially injured Mike Lowell is hurting again.

To bolster the rotation, the Red Sox threw a load of money at veteran right-hander John Lackey, who will join Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Tim Wakefield as the team breaks camp and heads north.

Beckett is the key to the Red Sox season. After a blazing start to the '09 season, he faltered down the stretch and regularly served up gopher balls. If healthy and consistent, Beckett, Lackey, and Lester are the best 1-2-3 punch in all of baseball.

The offense has taken a hit with the departure of Jason Bay and needs a re-emergence fromDavid Ortiz if the Sox are going to win the AL East or wildcard. Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron could provide some spark, but the Sox will have the third best offense of the AL East "Big 3". Having Victor Martinez for a full season will certainly help.

Defensively, the Sox made a good move in bringing in Marco Scutaro to play shortstop and have a tremendous defensive infield. Cameron's acquisition allows the Red Sox to move the shaky glove of Jacoby Ellsbury to left field.

The Rays fell apart one year after winning the AL pennant. Just 84 wins left Tampa Bay in third place and in the dust. But this team should rebound this season. They had a positive start by winning 19 Spring Training games and B.J. Upton is healthy.

Upton's attitude came under fire at times last season, but his bad shoulder was more of a problem than his head. Evan Longoria is a stud and the Rays get regular contributions from Ben Zobrist, Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford, and Jason Bartlett.

The Rays starting rotation may not have the pedigree of the Yankees and Red Sox pitchers, but Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, and James Shields are a solid front three. 2008 #1 pick David Price and outstanding prospect Wade Davis round out the rotation.

The Rays' bullpen, so magnificent in '08, was a model of inconsistency last season. Tampa Bay has brought in veteran Rafael Soriano to take over the closer role. Soriano's ability is not in question, but keeping him healthy and on the field is. The Rays have to hope that solid lefty J.P. Howell isn't out too long with a tired left shoulder.

Crawford's pending free agency could be another issue as the season wears on. It's unlikely the Rays will be able to retain him after this season, so do they trade him in-season? If so, uber prospect Desmond Jennings may get a 2010 call up.

AL East stories from Toronto and Baltimore worth watching:

1. The progress of Matt Wieters at and behind the plate for the Orioles. After a slow start, Wieters hit well down the stretch and showed the power he is capable of producing.

2. The Blue Jays don't have Roy Halladay in the rotation for the first time since 2001. The Yankees are surely glad he's over in the NL.

3. Shaun Marcum's return to the Jays' rotation. Marcum pitched under the radar in putting up back to back solid years in 2007-08. Then came Tommy John surgery and many months of recovery. Marcum has worked his way back and has been rewarded with the opening day start for Toronto.

4. Will Brian Roberts' back problems be resolved or will he miss a good chunk of the season? Anyone who has ever suffered back pain knows how debilitating it can be. Roberts is suffering from a herniated disk that has limited his playing time this spring. The Orioles have brought in veteran Julio Lugo as a backup.

And the division winner is.......

The Yankees. Some would call it bias, but I see the Yankees winning the AL East once again with....the Rays finishing just ahead of the Red Sox for second place and the wildcard. But hey, what do I know.

AL Playoff Look - 7/20

The Rays were happy to hit the All-Star break in the midst of a 7-game skid. They've snapped out of it with 2 straight wins to leap frog the Red Sox and move back into first place in the AL East. The Red Sox have started the 2nd half with two straight losses to the Los Angeles Angeles.

Meanwhile with the Yankees winning 2 straight, things are closer in the AL East and the Wild Card is getting more interesting.

AL East
Rays 57-39 --
Red Sox 57-42 1.5
Yankees 52-45 5.5

Wild Card
Red Sox 57-42 --
Twins 55-42 1.0
Yankees 52-45 4.0
A's 51-46 5.0

AL Playoff Look - 7/20

The Rays were happy to hit the All-Star break in the midst of a 7-game skid. They've snapped out of it with 2 straight wins to leap frog the Red Sox and move back into first place in the AL East. The Red Sox have started the 2nd half with two straight losses to the Los Angeles Angeles.

Meanwhile with the Yankees winning 2 straight, things are closer in the AL East and the Wild Card is getting more interesting.

AL East
Rays 57-39 --
Red Sox 57-42 1.5
Yankees 52-45 5.5

Wild Card
Red Sox 57-42 --
Twins 55-42 1.0
Yankees 52-45 4.0
A's 51-46 5.0

Verducci Picks Yankees to Win AL East

He may still be on the Steinbrenner's shit list after his defense of Joe Torre in print, but Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci has picked the Yankees to win the American League's East division.

Two GMs told me this is the year the Yankees don't make the postseason, one of them going so far as to say they'll finish third, behind Boston and Toronto. I'm not buying it. The Yankees have so much talent it would take a multitude of worst-case scenarios to cut them low: Andy Pettitte breaks down, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui and, most critically, Jorge Posada all decline significantly because of age, and kid pitchers Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy aren't ready to carry a full season of New York's physical and psychological load. Is all of that going to happen? No.

Boston seems more prone to a fallback, if only because recent world champions seem to be handed a tax bill the following season -- and if it hits Josh Beckett, look out. Toronto is intriguing, but there's a huge difference between 87 wins and the 94 you need to play with the big boys in the East. The Jays are not in that weight class.

We like his thinking even though we don't agree with it completely. But that's a story for another day.

Verducci Picks Yankees to Win AL East

He may still be on the Steinbrenner's shit list after his defense of Joe Torre in print, but Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci has picked the Yankees to win the American League's East division.

Two GMs told me this is the year the Yankees don't make the postseason, one of them going so far as to say they'll finish third, behind Boston and Toronto. I'm not buying it. The Yankees have so much talent it would take a multitude of worst-case scenarios to cut them low: Andy Pettitte breaks down, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui and, most critically, Jorge Posada all decline significantly because of age, and kid pitchers Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy aren't ready to carry a full season of New York's physical and psychological load. Is all of that going to happen? No.

Boston seems more prone to a fallback, if only because recent world champions seem to be handed a tax bill the following season -- and if it hits Josh Beckett, look out. Toronto is intriguing, but there's a huge difference between 87 wins and the 94 you need to play with the big boys in the East. The Jays are not in that weight class.

We like his thinking even though we don't agree with it completely. But that's a story for another day.

The Rotations - AL East

Yankees

Guaranteed Spots: Andy Pettitte, Chien-Ming Wang, Phil Hughes

That leaves 2 spots for 3 pitchers - Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, and Mike Mussina.

Management has a number of concerns coming into the grapefruit league. Will Andy Pettitte be affected by his involvement in the P.E.D. scandal? Will Chien-Ming Wang shake off his 2 horrendous playoff performances and show the consistency that made him a 19 game winner two years in a row? How much does Mike Mussina have left in his arm?

But the biggest concern is how to handle the “Big 3” - Hughes, Kennedy, and Chamberlain. The team wants to limit the innings pitched for all three of them, particularly Chamberlain who spent much of the season working out of the bullpen. The debate has waged on all off-season internally as well as between the fans as to what Chamberlain's role should be (if you haven't already answered our poll question in the right sidebar, please do).

The Yankees also want to be sure Hughes can handle a full load after missing much of last season with injuries. Kennedy was a horse last season, throwing 165.1 innings between 3 levels of the minors and 3 starts for the Yankees.

Chamberlain pitching out of the pen of course gives it a huge boost, and allows Joe Girardi to not have to rely so much on Kyle Farnsworth or LaTroy Hawkins to set up Mariano Rivera.

Much of what happens will be directly tied to what the Yankees can get out of Mussina. The ornery right-hander started out a house fire last year, but then burned to the ground. Yankees fans would like nothing more than the young guys to become the established starters, and in our case, Mussina shipped out of town.

At some point, Alan Horne could also have an impact on the rotation, or could join Russ Ohlendorf in an attempt to strengthen the pen.

Red Sox

Guaranteed Spots: Josh Beckett, Dasuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz

Things have changed drastically for the Red Sox before pitchers and catchers even report to spring training. Curt Schilling has a bad shoulder and differing opinions on how it should be treated. For now it’s a cortisone shot and rehab, but no matter what the course of treatment is, the big windbag will miss the beginning of the season.

The direct outcome of Schilling’s injury is the Sox, just like their division rivals, will be looking towards their youth to pick up the slack. Instead of just Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz being part of the rotation, both will be penciled in.

Lester was the feel good story of the year, coming back from cancer treatment to post a 4-0 record in the regular season and the final win of the World Series. Buchholz made a big splash on the scene, throwing a no-hitter on September 1^st before being shut down for fatigue after 2 more starts. The Sox will be monitoring their innings as well. Lester threw a career high 153.2 last season, while Buchholz threw 148.

The Red Sox still have plenty of experience though in Beckett, the incumbent Cy Young Winner, Dice-K who is a sophomore in MLB experience only, and knuckleballer Tim Wakefield.

Blue Jays

Guaranteed Spots: Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum

Halladay is the stud of the group. A Cy Young Winner with some of the nastiest stuff in baseball. Burnett’s stuff may be even nastier than Halladay’s, but he could be gone by the end of spring training. GM J.P. Ricciardi publicly dissed his injury-prone 2005 free agent signing last year, and Burnett still has 3 years left on his deal.

McGowan finally began to show the promise last season that scouts have talked about for years, posting a 12-10 record with a 4.08 ERA. He also struck out 144 in 169.2 IP.

Marcum stepped up in his role split between the bullpen and starting rotation. His 4.13 ERA in 122 K’s in 159 innings should help the Jays pitch their way to a competitive season.

Jesse Litsch went from being a Rays bat boy to a 24^th round pick in 2004 to jumping from Double-A to the majors in his 1^st season in pro ball last year. After leading the Eastern League with a 0.96 ERA, he put up very respectable numbers- 7-9, 3.81- for the Blue Jays. Right now he has the inside track for the final spot in the rotation.

Gustavo Chacin went 22-13 in his first two seasons before injuries start to befall him. He made just 5 appearances last season. He’ll most likely start the season at Triple-A Syracuse. Casey Janssen was a starter before being moved to a set up role last season where he excelled. Though it would hurt the pen, he could return to a starting spot.

The Jays rotation has the ability to be the best in the division by the end of the season.

Orioles

Guaranteed Spots: Daniel Cabrera, Jeremy Guthrie

The Orioles dealt their ace Erik Bedard to the Mariners last week, leaving their rotation pretty much in shambles.

Cabrera falls in to the category of “if he could only harness his stuff”. Cabrera’s inconsistency has been one of the constants in Baltimore. He threw a career high 204.1 innings last year, striking out 166 in the process. But he topped 100 walks for the 2^nd straight season.

Guthrie showed last year that the Indians gave up too quickly on their former star prospect. Though he tired out down the stretch, Guthrie tossed 175.1 innings, compiling a 7-5 record with a 3.70 ERA.

Adam Loewen missed last season due to Tommy John surgery, but is ready for spring training and could make the rotation. He could very well be the next Erik Bedard for the O’s, though fans must look at that as a mixed blessing.

Brian Burres, Matt Albers, Troy Patton, Garrett Olson, and Hayden Penn will compete for a spot, which is why GM Andy McPhail might bring in Josh Fogg and/or Steve Trachsel for a more veteran presence.

Rays

Guaranteed Spots: Scott Kazmir, Jamie Shields, Matt Garza

Kazmir is the stud of the group, and it remains to be seen whether the Rays will be able to keep him long term or if he’ll “Bedard” his way out of town. The left-hander led the AL last season with 248 strikeouts.

Shields had an outstanding rookie campaign, going 12-8 with 3.85 ERA and 184 strikeouts in 215 innings. He also only walked 36 hitters.

Garza was the key to the Rays dealing Delmon Young. He began to show the promise expected of him last season, going 5-7, 3.69 in 15 big league starts.

The final spots are up for grabs for just about any pitcher in camp. Chief among them is the Rays’ number 1 pitching prospect, David Price. The lefty out of Vanderbilt was the top pick of last June’s draft, and though the Rays don’t like to rush their youth, he could have an impact this season.

Rating the rotations:

1. Red Sox
2. Yankees
2. Blue Jays
4. Rays
5. Orioles