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The Jeter maze is probably easier to figure out than next year's squad. |
This has not been a happy summer of Yankees’ baseball. It’s
not helped by the fact that the summer is flying buy either. Football is around
the corner and the final 1-1/2 months of the regular season is here. The
Yankees semi-salvaged their road trip to Baltimore and Tampa Bay with a pair of
wins this past weekend, but they enter Tuesday’s play a long 7.5 games behind
the AL East leading Baltimore Orioles. They’re still in the wild card race
(three games back of Detroit), but there are many others in the mix.
The fans are restless, bored, and unenthusiastic. It’s hard
to blame them though. This current squad of Yankees has been turning in some
dull efforts. It’s a team that can’t stay healthy, struggles to hit, and has a
patchwork rotation.
It makes you wonder what things will be like next year. It
will be the first Jeter-less Yankees team since 1995. (Yes, he had a cup of
coffee with the team, but his impact wasn’t felt until a year later.) So the
first thing to consider is:
Who will be the
Yankees starting shortstop in 2015?
That is a difficult question to answer. There was
speculation when
Stephen Drew was acquired from Boston that the Yankees would
try to re-sign him for next season to take over at his natural position, shortstop.
Earlier this year, it looked like
Yangervis Solarte might be
the answer. Then he flamed out and is now a member of the San Diego Padres.
All-Star
Troy Tulowitzki, who wears the number 2 in honor of
his idol, basically came out and said he wanted out of Colorado and would like
to be the next Yankees shortstop. There are several problems with that, not the
least of which is the guaranteed $118MM he is owed through 2021. He’s injury
prone and in fact, underwent season ending surgery last week to repair a torn
labrum in his left hip. At this point, how quickly he is ready to play next
year is anyone’s guess.
Oh, and let’s
not forget…he’s still a member of the Colorado Rockies.
The veterans that are potential free agents include the
Dodgers’
Hanley Ramirez, the Nationals’
Asdrubal Cabrera, and the Orioles’ J.J.
Hardy. The best option of the three is Ramirez, the former star with the
Florida Marlins. Ramirez earned $16MM this year, a season in which his
production has dropped off some from last year, when he suffered a shoulder
injury. Ramirez will be 31 when next season starts. Health and wanting a
long-term, big money deal are the drawback.
Cabrera’s numbers have steadily slid since his 2011 All-Star
season and Hardy has just 7 HR in 112 games after having averaged 25 HR the
prior three seasons.
Who will be manning
second base and third base?
Things get really sticky here. Yankees principal owner Hal
Steinbrenner stated last week that he expected
Alex Rodriguez to be back as the
Yankees third baseman in 2015. Can you really see that happening? Despite the
fact they owe A-Rod $61MM, do you really think they want to deal with the
circus that will come to town with him? It’s odd not to think the Yankees will
attempt to either buy him out or eat a chunk of his salary and deal him to a
team like the Florida Marlins. A-Rod would be in his hometown area and maybe
the Marlins would have a drawing card. For his part, A-Rod would probably like
to return to the Bronx just to stick it to the team he feels conspired with
Major League Baseball to get him suspended. He’s going to have to weigh that
against a mixed reception from the fans.
Barring an unusual circumstance,
Martin Prado becomes the
regular second baseman. (Perhaps third baseman if A-Rod departs.) Acquired from
the Arizona Diamondbacks at the trade deadline, Prado has two years and $22MM
left on his contract.
Free agent options for the two positions include Chase
Headley, acquired at the deadline from the San Diego Padres. After a hot start,
Headley entered this weekend with just eight hits in his last 47 at-bats, for a
.250/.349/.375 slash line with 2 HR and 8 RBI in 20 games. His defense at third
base, however, has been superb.
Pablo Sandoval is the biggest name among the pending free
agents at third base, though his hitting has curtailed a bit the last couple of
years. After making $8.2MM this year, “Kung Fu Panda” will be looking for a
long term, big money deal.
He’s under
30-years of age, practically unheard of in the Bronx these days, and is a
switch-hitter.
Among the second baseman that could become free agents are
the Tampa Rays’
Ben Zobrist. The team will likely pick up his bargain basement
$7.5MM option, but if they don’t, Zobrist will bring versatility to any team he
joins. This season alone, Zobrist has played both corner outfield positions and
both middle infield positions. The last two seasons, he has not shown the power
or speed he had in previous years, but he could still put up 15 HR and 10-15
steals.
Will there be a
healthy body in the starting rotation?
CC Sabathia,
Hiroki Kuroda,
Ivan Nova,
Masahiro Tanaka,
Michael Pineda. That’s a starting five that can go toe-to-toe with any starting
five in baseball. But Nova never made it past April, Sabathia’s season ended on
May 10, Pineda was out from April 24 to August 11, and Tanaka made his last
start on July 8. The oldest of the group, the 39-year old Kuroda, is the only
member of the staff to take his regular turn.
In a perfect world, Sabathia returns next season with a
healthy knee (no microfracture surgery was needed), Tanaka avoids
Tommy John
surgery and is in the rotation from the get-go, and Pineda remains healthy. The
final two spots in the rotation would be filled in with free agents, trade
acquisitions, or free agents.
Nova would
not likely return until at least the mid-season point.
The Candidates
McCarthy has been outstanding since joining the Yankees. Granted,
it’s a small sampling, but as of his first six starts as Yankee, McCarthy
posted a 2.21 ERA, 1.282 WHIP, and had allowed three home runs in 36.2 innings
pitched. If the price was right, the Yankees certainly would be interested in
McCarthy, who won’t be 31-years old until next July.
Phelps was up and down in his 17 starts before he landed on
the 15-day DL with an inflamed elbow. He had put together five solid starts
before his final two, when it became apparent there was an injury issue. He’s
due to begin a throwing program this week if he’s cleared by the medical staff.
Manny Banuelos was expected to be in the Yankees rotation by
now. But poor performance and then Tommy John surgery sidelined him from May,
2012 until April of this year. Still just 23-years old, the left-hander has
progressed steadily as the season has gone on. Over a period of three starts
from July 22 through August 1, Banuelos allowed one earned run and three hits
over 14 innings for the Double-A Trenton Thunder.
Though he was hit hard his next time out, the
Yankees moved him up to Triple-A Scranton, where he allowed one run and one hit
over five innings on August 12. (Banuelos had control issues in his start
yesterday.) If not at the beginning of 2015 season, Banuelos is a good bet to
join the Major League squad at some point during next season. The question is,
will it be as a starter or reliever?
The internal long shot would be
Luis Severino, who is now
considered by many to be the organization’s top pitching prospect. The native
of the Dominican Republic will be 21-years old shortly after pitchers and
catchers report to training camp. The six-foot right-hander has struck out 118
batters over 103 innings combined at Charleston (‘A’), Tampa (‘A+’), and
Trenton. The most remarkable stat for such a young strikeout artist is that
Severino has walked just 25 batters. That works out to a nifty 4.72 strikeout
to walk ratio. Severino’s ascension may be slowed for the remainder of the
season – he’ll return tonight after being out 10 days with an oblique injury.
Free agency will see some heavy duty price wars for the
services of left-hander
Jon Lester and last season’s AL
Cy Young winner, Max
Scherzer.
Royals’ ace
James Shields and
Seattle’s steady right-hander
Hisashi Iwakuma lead the next level of starters,
many of whom will wait to see what the top guns get before agreeing to deals.
With all the money the Yankees have tied up in players with
questionable health right now, it’s hard to see the team making a push for
Lester or Scherzer. Iwakuma would probably be the cheaper option of the tier 2
pitchers.
Does D-Rob return?
Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman better be sure he has enough money
in the pot to bring back free agent closer
David Robertson. “D-Rob” has done an
outstanding job in his first full season as Yankees closer, a job made even
more difficult by being the replacement for
Mariano Rivera. The native Alabaman
has saved 33 of 35 chances and averaged a career high 13.7 strikeouts per nine
innings.
The 29-year old earned $5.215MM this season and will get a substantial
raise next season.
His departure would
be a huge blow to the Yankees pen. (Many fans feel
Dellin Betances is ready to
step into the role already due to his 13.4 K’s per nine innings.
But this is Betances’ first full season in
the Majors and it shouldn’t be assumed he’s ready for the 9th inning role.)
Who will be Brian
McCann’s backup?
Francisco Cervelli has been solid as McCann’s’ backup. With
injuries to McCann and first baseman
Mark Teixeira (McCann has filled in),
Cervelli has seen his playing time increase since he returned from the disabled
list in mid-June. He’s hit .296 with an .825 OPS in 98 at-bats. The Yankees
need to decide whether it will be Cervelli, John Ryan Murphy, who backed up
McCann while Cervelli was out this season, veteran minor leaguer
Austin Romine,
or if will be a wild card entry to share the catching duties next season. With
Gary Sanchez and others on their way up the ladder, one of the many Yankees’
catchers could be dealt in the offseason.
Can the Yankees trade
Mark Teixeira?
Your guess is as good as mine. Teixeira has had one injury
after another this season after missing most of last year with a wrist tendon
injury. He’s been decent when he’s played - .768 OPS, 19 HR, 52 RBI in 87 games
– but his status is nearly questionable every day. Teixeira has two years and $45MM remaining on
his contract beyond this season. He’s also got a no-trade clause in his pact.
Barring a financial arrangement of some kind, Teixeira is in New York for the next
two years.
Will the Yankees make
the playoffs in 2015?
I have no answer for that. There are a lot more questions
about next year’s team and so far, not many answers. A healthy team would be a
good place to start.