Yankee Triumvirate vs.
David Ortiz
The Yankees head into the 2006 season with a pretty good sized question next to their DH situation. It appears to be a three-headed monster for now. Bernie Williams, Jason Giambi, and Andy Phillips will get the bulk of time, with Joe Torre using the spot to give periodic rest to Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield.
Giambi has already been discussed in the 1st Base comparison, so we won’t repeat it here. Andy Phillips has put up some impressive number in his last 3 minor league season (missed most of 2003 due to injury), but has yet to have that translate to the majors, albeit in a limited number of chances.
2002 - .301-28-87
2004 - .321-26-101
2005 - .300-22-54 (only 75 games)
This will be Phillips first chance to get some real at-bats to show what he can do. At the same time he’s learning a new position, having filled in at 1st Base last year, but not to any great extent. Phillips will be 29 the first week of the season and has reached his make or break point.
The third part of the rotating DH is long-time Yankee, Bernie Williams. Bernie is not the Bernie of the mid to late ‘90s, but can still come up with clutch hits. How many at-bats will Bernie get? 200? 400? Will he be happy in his new role as DH, part-time corner outfielder, and pinch-hitter? This is the first time in his career that Bernie will be facing these questions. Joe Torre revealed last week that he first broached the subject with Bernie this past July. Bernie had trouble getting his head wrapped around the concept at first as he still saw himself as an every day player. Apparently that changed between the summer and fall, as Bernie decided to come back for another season, but as a part-timer.
It’s the feeling here that despite the flexibility of not having a regular DH, the Yankees will get someone to fill that spot before the season is over.
David Ortiz is a manimal, a manster, more precisely, a hitting machine. The Red Sox fell into this one. Ortiz was a highly touted, underachieving 1st Baseman for the Minnesota Twins. After a .300-30-110 year at Triple-A, the Twins gave Ortiz a shot in 2000. His rookie season was decent, .282 with 10 HRs and 63 RBI in 415 ABs. A poor 2001 season, was followed by a pretty good 2002 - .272-20-75, but the Twins let him walk following the season. Ortiz was 27 and looking to catch on somewhere. The Red Sox signed him to be a role player, a part-time 1st Baseman/DH. Not that much was expected of him. Then Ortiz started to hit and he never stopped. He quickly became a fixture in the lineup and finished with 31 HRs and 101 RBI. The past two seasons, he’s been nearly unstoppable, averaging 44 HRs and 144 RBI. He’s also hit .301 and .300 respectively. Add in 102 walks last season and a gaudy 1.001 OPS. “Big Papi” has also become one of the most clutch and feared hitters in all of baseball.
Advantage - Ortiz by a mile
The Starting Rotations
This is the biggest question marks for both teams. Age, inexperience, injury are all playing apart in the makeup of both team’s rotation.
Right now the Yankees will run out Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano, Shawn Chacon, and Chien-Ming Wang. Waiting in the wings are Jaret Wright and Aaron Small. Very good, pretty good, good, rotten? That remains to be seen.
Let’s start from the top…the very top. The Big Unit, Randy Johnson came over with extremely high expectations. An opening night win against the Red Sox heightened those expectations. Unfortunately, the results for the rest of the first half only reached up to about his belt buckle. His slider was flat and his fastball was missing zip. After making some adjustments, Johnson sizzled in the 2nd half. Opponents hit just .208 in his last 15 starts, which saw Johnson go 8-2 to finish 17-8 overall. But like many of his teammates, Johnson spit the bit during the ALDS loss to the Angels. Hopefully with a year under his belt in New York, he’ll show more positive signs this year.
Mike Mussina started to look like a broken down old man last year. He managed to make 30 starts, but his stuff wasn’t there for most of them. The league hit .284 against him, the highest average he’s ever allowed. For the second straight season, he yielded close to 4.5 runs per game, and after eclipsing 200 innings pitched for 9 straight years, he again finished below that mark. He also landed on the DL again. The 37-year old is in the last year of a six-year deal. It may very well be his last, not only with the Yankees, but in all of baseball if his elbow isn’t healthy.
Carl Pavano signed a 4-year, $44 million free agent contract following the 2004 season. The Yankees felt they had made the signing of the off-season. Unfortunately the word “off-season” continued during the season. Pavano started out with a decent April, going 2-2 with a 3.10 ERA. He would only make 12 more starts over the next two months before missing the rest of the season with shoulder and back problems. The league battered him over those last dozen starts to the tune of a .327 average. It appears now that a bad back caused Pavano to alter his motion, which in turn screwed up his shoulder. He’s already seen a back specialist this month after feeling twinges. To make matters worse, rumors have persisted that Pavano was and is unhappy in the city and wants out. Pavano has denied this to GM Brian Cashman, but the doubt lingers.
Chien-Ming Wang was the most ready for primetime pitching prospect in the organization prior to the 2005 season. He proved that label to be accurate when he became indispensable in the Yankees rotation. With injuries to Kevin Brown, Mike Mussina, Jaret Wright, and Carl Pavano, the Yankees weren’t sure where to turn. Thankfully they turned to Wang. The rookie showed incredible poise, going 6-3, with a sub 4 ERA, before landing on the DL himself at the All-Star break. Reports were not good - ranging from a torn rotator cuff to inflammation. The latter turned out to be closer to the truth and “The Wanger” returned to win 2 games down the stretch in September. A healthy Chien-Ming Wang is a must for the Yankees to win.
Shawn Chacon was having one of the most miserable years of his life. His Colorado Rockies stunk yet again and he was 1-7. Then the call came, Chacon had been traded to the Yankees for a pair of lower level prospects. Chacon was rejuvenated. With the help of some tweaking by pitching coach Mel Stottelmyre, and renewed confidence, Chacon made 14 appearances, 12 of them starts. All he did was go 7-3 with a 2.85 ERA and win one big game after another. Down two games to one in the ALDS, he pitched a sparkling 6+ innings in a game the Yankees would win after he had been pulled. Now the Yankees need him to repeat those performances.Aaron Small and Jaret Wright also made appearances in the starting rotation, and that’s where the similarities end. Wright signed a 3-year, $21 million free agent deal after the 2004 season. Small was a journeyman right-hander, who had signed a minor league contract to help bolster the Columbus rotation. Everyone was counting on Wright, no one was counting on Small.
Wright made four starts in April, one more miserable than the other. Somehow he managed to win 2 of them. Then he went on the DL until August. He showed flashes of his 2004 success with Atlanta, but overall he struggled, finishing 5-5, 6.08 and only 2 more strikeouts than walks. 
Small, on the other hand, was tremendous. The one-time high school teammate of Jason Giambi, went an astonishing 10 in 15 appearances, 9 of them starts, including a complete game. He pitched with poise, control, and confidence - things that were lacking from much of the starting staff. The Yankees hope he will only be a tremendous asset to the bullpen this year and not needed in the starting rotation.The Red Sox have as many questions concerning their starting rotation as do the Yankees.
Curt Schilling, he of the big mouth and powerful right arm, is still trying to recover from the ankle injury he suffered in 2004. It caused him to miss much of last season, and at one point relegated him to the closer role, because the ankle wouldn’t hold up for long periods. Schilling has declared himself healthy and has dropped a number of pounds. The Sox wonder whether they will see the 21-6, 3.26 Schilling of 2004 or last year’s 8-9, 5.69 model.
The Red Sox made a steal of a deal this off-season, acquiring Josh Beckett from Florida, along with Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota (later used in the Coco Crisp deal) for prospects Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Jesus Delgado, and Harvey Garcia. Beckett gained national prominence in 2003 when he led the Florida Marlins to the second World Series championship versus the Yankees. That included shutting down the Yankees in the clincher at Yankee Stadium. Shoulder problems have nagged him the last 2 years, and he has yet to reach 200 innings in a season (though his totals have increased each year). The Red Sox avoided arbitration by signing the soon-to-be 26-yr old to a one year deal. They obviously want to wait to see how his shoulder stands up as well as how he does against the hitter friendly American League before signing him long term.
Tim Wakefield, David Wells, Bronson Arroyo, Matt Clement, Bronson Arroyo, and Jonathan Papelbon. These are the names that Manger Terry Francona is going to throw against the wall to see who sticks. Wakefield is the most likely of the group to end up in the rotation, followed by Clement. Wakefield and his knuckles will turn 40 in August, but he is coming off a 225-innings pitched season and 16 wins. He’s probably the guy that Francona can count on most.
Clement’s name surfaced in trade rumors during the season (e.g. for Cincy’s Austin Kearns). After a strong start (10-2), Clement, as many predicted, struggled in the 2nd half, winning just 3 times in 14 decisions. To make matters worse, he was struck by a line drive off the bat of Tampa Bay’s Carl Crawford in a July game. Clement’s inconsistency drove the Cubs crazy, and if Francona had any more hair to lose, he certainly would lose it watching Clement.
David Wells is unhappy. What else is new? Despite some injuries, Boomer still managed to make 30 starts and win 15 games, but he was never very happy last year. He has been campaigning for a trade back to the west coast, preferably to the Padres. While talks have gone between the Sox and the Pads, as well as the Dodgers, nothing has transpired. Wells said he will show up on-time to spring training and remain a “good soldier”. How long that lasts is anybody’s guess. It’s most likely he’ll be traded before the Sox break camp.
In 2004, Bronson Arroyo looked like Bo Derek, last year it was The Dutch Boy. He went 7-5 with an ERA of just over 4 for the first half of last year, and although he matched his won-lost record in the second half, his ERA was a full point higher. Because of the flexibility Arroyo gives him, Francona may opt to use him out of the pen. For the moment though, it looks like Arroyo will be the number 5 starter.
Jonathan Papelbon is the dark horse for the rotation, but outstanding spring training could change all that. The, then, 24-yr old rookie showed a lot of poise last year, making 17 appearances, including 3 starts. He finished 3-1, 2.65, averaging a strikeout per inning. His downside - almost a hit per inning and 4.5 walks per 9 innings. He could have a big impact on the rotation during the season though, just as Wang did for the Yankees last year.This is the toughest one to call. So many question marks.
Based on last year
Schilling vs. Johnson - Johnson
Beckett vs. Mussina - Beckett
Clement vs Pavano - Clement
Wakefield vs Chacon - Even
Arroyo vs Wang - Even
Advantage - by the Big Unit’s nose, the Red Sox
Stay tuned for the final part of this series in which we will cover the bullpens, bench and intangibles.
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