NHL 1st Round Predictions: Rangers vs. Caps

Every first round matchup has already begun except for the New York Rangers - Washington Capitals, which kicks into gear tonight (Thursday). So that's where I'll begin. It's been 19 years since the Rangers last won the Stanley Cup, which means if you are a Rangers fan, you and I have been frustrated before and after 1994.

Stepan has given the Rangers plenty of reason to celebrate

The Rangers had high hopes last season, but lost in the Eastern Conference finals to one of their chief rivals, the New Jersey Devils. The team struggled to score last year and it got even worse on the power play.  The Rangers were the #1 seed in the east last year, but for much of this season it didn't look like they would even make the playoffs.  Despite the acquisition of Rick Nash from the Columbus Blue Jackets, the team still struggled to score at even strength or with the man advantage. Last year's Veniza Trophy winner for best goalie, Henrik Lundquist, also struggled at times.  The Rangers finally did clinch a spot, in the final week no less, and actually moved up to the 6th spot in the seeding.

Moving out of the 8th seed was a big accomplishment in itself since it meant not having to face the Pittsburgh Penguins in the first round. The Rangers simply cannot handle Pittsburgh's game - especially with a healthy Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in the lineup. But back to the Pens at another time.

The Rangers closed out the season 10-3-1, due in large part to the emergence of Derek Stepan, who really stepped up his game down the stretch. Suddenly the Rangers are getting goals from different lines and even on the power play. Another deal with Columbus has paid off as well with contributions from Derrick Brassard and John Moore. The Rangers also got Derek Dorsett, who has not played due to injury, but the Rangers are hoping he can return from injuries in the post-season.

The Caps looked like a team that definitely wasn't going to make the playoffs after Alex Ovechkin got off to another sluggish start. Ovechkin was benched during crucial moments of the Rangers-Caps series in last season's seven game second round series. His 38 goals and 27 assists in 78 games gave him a career low 65 points for the regular season. He was also -8 and managed just nine points in 14 playoff games.

Ovechkin lit the lamp just 10 times times in the team's first 27 games this season, three of them in one game. But the old Ovie reappeared in the nick of time and scored 22 goals in the season's final 21 games to help the Caps win the Southeast division.  Troy Brouwer also made a big contribution with seven of his 19 goals coming with the opponent shorthanded.

The Caps also got better when the defense and goaltender Braden Holtby both improved. Holtby won nine of his last 10 starts and the Caps finished the season on a high note- 15-2-2.  The 23-year old played in all 14 playoff games last season.

And the winner is...the Rangers in 7 games. I expect a hard fought series with the Rangers defenseman and Lundquist making the difference.

Prediction and Preview Time - AL East

It's that time of year again. The pretenders (the non-Chrissie Hynde Pretenders) will fall by the way side and the cream of the baseball crop will rise to the top. Time for some AL and NL previews and some post-season award predictions.

AL East

Why not start off with the toughest division in baseball - no, not the NL Central. The AL East is the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. <--Period. Forget the Orioles. Forget the Blue Jays. They aren't going to sniff first place once the calendar turns to May. It likely it won't even take that long, but you can be tied for first with 1-0 mark. The Yankees have plenty on the line and some significant changes from last season. Gone are Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui, two components of the team's 27th world championship. Added is Javier Vazquez to strengthen a solid rotation. Phil Hughes won a battle for the 5th starter spot, meaning Joba Chamberlain will be working out of the bullpen on a full-time basis.

Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson try to fill the void left by Damon and Matsui and the Yankees have a healthy Alex Rodriguez to start the season.

Question marks surround left field where Brett Gardner and Randy Winn will share most of the time, Johnson's health (that's unsavory sounding no matter how you spell it out), the lack of a veteran backstop for Jorge Posada, and the overall aging of a lot of the key players on the team.

The Red Sox had a 7-0 series advantage over the Yankees at one point last season. But April baseball doesn't make title winners. The Sox won 95 games, but still finished a distance eight games behind their NY rivals. Then came a three game sweep at the hands of the LA Angels, a team Boston normally manhandled in the post-season, in the wildcard series.

Injuries started to take their toll as the regular season wore on and still have some impact as the team enters the 2010 season. Starter Daisuke Matsuzaka will start the season on the DL and perennially injured Mike Lowell is hurting again.

To bolster the rotation, the Red Sox threw a load of money at veteran right-hander John Lackey, who will join Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Tim Wakefield as the team breaks camp and heads north.

Beckett is the key to the Red Sox season. After a blazing start to the '09 season, he faltered down the stretch and regularly served up gopher balls. If healthy and consistent, Beckett, Lackey, and Lester are the best 1-2-3 punch in all of baseball.

The offense has taken a hit with the departure of Jason Bay and needs a re-emergence fromDavid Ortiz if the Sox are going to win the AL East or wildcard. Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron could provide some spark, but the Sox will have the third best offense of the AL East "Big 3". Having Victor Martinez for a full season will certainly help.

Defensively, the Sox made a good move in bringing in Marco Scutaro to play shortstop and have a tremendous defensive infield. Cameron's acquisition allows the Red Sox to move the shaky glove of Jacoby Ellsbury to left field.

The Rays fell apart one year after winning the AL pennant. Just 84 wins left Tampa Bay in third place and in the dust. But this team should rebound this season. They had a positive start by winning 19 Spring Training games and B.J. Upton is healthy.

Upton's attitude came under fire at times last season, but his bad shoulder was more of a problem than his head. Evan Longoria is a stud and the Rays get regular contributions from Ben Zobrist, Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford, and Jason Bartlett.

The Rays starting rotation may not have the pedigree of the Yankees and Red Sox pitchers, but Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, and James Shields are a solid front three. 2008 #1 pick David Price and outstanding prospect Wade Davis round out the rotation.

The Rays' bullpen, so magnificent in '08, was a model of inconsistency last season. Tampa Bay has brought in veteran Rafael Soriano to take over the closer role. Soriano's ability is not in question, but keeping him healthy and on the field is. The Rays have to hope that solid lefty J.P. Howell isn't out too long with a tired left shoulder.

Crawford's pending free agency could be another issue as the season wears on. It's unlikely the Rays will be able to retain him after this season, so do they trade him in-season? If so, uber prospect Desmond Jennings may get a 2010 call up.

AL East stories from Toronto and Baltimore worth watching:

1. The progress of Matt Wieters at and behind the plate for the Orioles. After a slow start, Wieters hit well down the stretch and showed the power he is capable of producing.

2. The Blue Jays don't have Roy Halladay in the rotation for the first time since 2001. The Yankees are surely glad he's over in the NL.

3. Shaun Marcum's return to the Jays' rotation. Marcum pitched under the radar in putting up back to back solid years in 2007-08. Then came Tommy John surgery and many months of recovery. Marcum has worked his way back and has been rewarded with the opening day start for Toronto.

4. Will Brian Roberts' back problems be resolved or will he miss a good chunk of the season? Anyone who has ever suffered back pain knows how debilitating it can be. Roberts is suffering from a herniated disk that has limited his playing time this spring. The Orioles have brought in veteran Julio Lugo as a backup.

And the division winner is.......

The Yankees. Some would call it bias, but I see the Yankees winning the AL East once again with....the Rays finishing just ahead of the Red Sox for second place and the wildcard. But hey, what do I know.

Those Other Series

I haven't forgotten about the rest of the playoffs, just been more focused on the Yankees' ALDS match up. But here's how I see things:

Red Sox vs. Angels

The Angels have been miserable in the playoffs against Boston and I don't see it changing. The Angels should be able to run at will against Jason Varitek and Victor Martinez, but Boston's 1-2 punch of Josh Beckett and Jon Lester is awfully tough.

The Angels have been through a lot this year with Nick Adenhart's death and a rash of injuries, and Mike Scosia has done an amazing job of keeping it all together. But I don't see the Angels' rotation, outside of John Lackey, shutting down the Boston lineup.

Prediction: Boston in 5


Rockies vs. Phillies

The Phillies have had their problems this season, particularly in the bullpen, but there's still plenty of talent in the starting rotation and a powerful offense.

The Rockies turned things around when manager Clint Hurdle was replaced by Jim Tracey, and played some of the baseball in the 2nd half. I don't like their starting pitching in this series. None of them scare you.


Prediction: Phillies in 3


Cardinals vs. Dodgers

St. Louis easily outclassed the heavily favored Cubs to win the NL Central. The Dodgers had a cake walk in the NL West, at least until the last 2 weeks of the season. Then things got ugly and they nearly blew the division (though they would have made the playoffs either way).

The difference in this series will be the Cards' top 2 starters - Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright should be able to shut down the Dodgers bats, which have been slumping of late. And Albert > Manny.

Prediction: Cardinals in 4

Verducci Picks Yankees to Win AL East

He may still be on the Steinbrenner's shit list after his defense of Joe Torre in print, but Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci has picked the Yankees to win the American League's East division.

Two GMs told me this is the year the Yankees don't make the postseason, one of them going so far as to say they'll finish third, behind Boston and Toronto. I'm not buying it. The Yankees have so much talent it would take a multitude of worst-case scenarios to cut them low: Andy Pettitte breaks down, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui and, most critically, Jorge Posada all decline significantly because of age, and kid pitchers Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy aren't ready to carry a full season of New York's physical and psychological load. Is all of that going to happen? No.

Boston seems more prone to a fallback, if only because recent world champions seem to be handed a tax bill the following season -- and if it hits Josh Beckett, look out. Toronto is intriguing, but there's a huge difference between 87 wins and the 94 you need to play with the big boys in the East. The Jays are not in that weight class.

We like his thinking even though we don't agree with it completely. But that's a story for another day.

Verducci Picks Yankees to Win AL East

He may still be on the Steinbrenner's shit list after his defense of Joe Torre in print, but Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci has picked the Yankees to win the American League's East division.

Two GMs told me this is the year the Yankees don't make the postseason, one of them going so far as to say they'll finish third, behind Boston and Toronto. I'm not buying it. The Yankees have so much talent it would take a multitude of worst-case scenarios to cut them low: Andy Pettitte breaks down, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui and, most critically, Jorge Posada all decline significantly because of age, and kid pitchers Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy aren't ready to carry a full season of New York's physical and psychological load. Is all of that going to happen? No.

Boston seems more prone to a fallback, if only because recent world champions seem to be handed a tax bill the following season -- and if it hits Josh Beckett, look out. Toronto is intriguing, but there's a huge difference between 87 wins and the 94 you need to play with the big boys in the East. The Jays are not in that weight class.

We like his thinking even though we don't agree with it completely. But that's a story for another day.

Wild Card Weekend

The feeling about the Giants being a confident team after losing to the Pats is a bit absurd. While the offense played exceptionally well, the defense got torched, albeit by the league's best offense. But we don't know which Giants team will show up in Tampa this weekend, and that's why its difficult to have a positive feeling any time they play in the playoffs under Tom Coughlin.

We still think the Giants will win a tight one, 17-13. That also means take the 3 points.

Here's a look at the rest of the games.

Redskins -3.5 at Seahawks. We think this game is coming down to a field goal and the Redskins have an excellent chance to win the game. The Skins are on an adrenaline high right now and we don't trust the Seahawks. We don't particularly like a lot of the in-game decisions that Mike Holmgren makes either. All that being said, Seahawks 21 Redskins 20.

Jags -2.5 at Steelers. The Steelers are playing at home, which will help overcome the overrated status. But even though we never confuse Dave Garrard with Tom Brady, we think the Jags win this very physical game. Jaguars 27 Steelers 17.

Chargers -10 at Titans
We didn't think the Titans or Browns would stand a chance in this game, and we haven't changed our minds. Whether its Vince Young or Kerry Collins leading the Titans, they won't be able to match the offense output the Chargers put up. Phillip Rivers is struggling, but LaDanian Tomlinson is still the man. Chargers 34 Titans 20

Wild Card Weekend

The feeling about the Giants being a confident team after losing to the Pats is a bit absurd. While the offense played exceptionally well, the defense got torched, albeit by the league's best offense. But we don't know which Giants team will show up in Tampa this weekend, and that's why its difficult to have a positive feeling any time they play in the playoffs under Tom Coughlin.

We still think the Giants will win a tight one, 17-13. That also means take the 3 points.

Here's a look at the rest of the games.

Redskins -3.5 at Seahawks. We think this game is coming down to a field goal and the Redskins have an excellent chance to win the game. The Skins are on an adrenaline high right now and we don't trust the Seahawks. We don't particularly like a lot of the in-game decisions that Mike Holmgren makes either. All that being said, Seahawks 21 Redskins 20.

Jags -2.5 at Steelers. The Steelers are playing at home, which will help overcome the overrated status. But even though we never confuse Dave Garrard with Tom Brady, we think the Jags win this very physical game. Jaguars 27 Steelers 17.

Chargers -10 at Titans
We didn't think the Titans or Browns would stand a chance in this game, and we haven't changed our minds. Whether its Vince Young or Kerry Collins leading the Titans, they won't be able to match the offense output the Chargers put up. Phillip Rivers is struggling, but LaDanian Tomlinson is still the man. Chargers 34 Titans 20