Twins Got A Loss Before They Started

Pitching is the key to winning in the playoffs - just look at the 2009 New York Yankees for a surefire example - but in this year's Yankees-Minnesota Twins division series it is the loss of an offensive player that could sway the series heavily in the Yankees' favor.

Twins 1st baseman Justin Morneau is one of the best hitters in baseball; a perennial 30-HR, 100-RBI guy who hits .300 to boot.

But there will be no Morneau in the ALDS or beyond. Morneau missed the remainder of the season after suffering a concussion July 7. At the time he was hitting .345 with 18 HR and 56 RBI in 80 games. The Twins hoped Morneau could be back at some point in the post-season, but that was ruled out as well after concussion symptoms returned this past Saturday.

The loss is devastating to a lineup which scratches out runs and is not laden with big boppers. Though they finished sixth in the major leagues in runs scored, the Twins rely heavily on the M duo of Morneau and Joe Mauer (I refuse to call them the M&M boys, there was only one set of them). The latter has also been banged up and returned to his pre-2009 power (when he banged out 28 dingers) of just 9 home runs.

Morneau's absence for the second straight post-season, he missed last year with a bad back, will certainly put more pressure on a Twins starting rotation that was not a model of consistency this year. Other than Francisco Liriano, who re-established his ace stuff, most of the remainder of the staff did not perform up to their usual ability and fell short of expectations.

The Twins will most certainly rely on small ball and their running ability to score runs against the Yankees. Teams have stolen with ease this year against the Yankees rotation and catching duo of Jorge Posada and Francisco Cervelli and the Twins should continue that trend. Delmon Young (.826 OPS 21 HR 112 RBI) could be an 'X' factor in the series after finally living up to the hype surrounding him while in Tampa Bay and Minnesota.

The Twins lost Joe Nathan to Tommy John surgery during spring training, but 6'11" Jon Rauch filled those big shoes as a steady closer. When he faltered, GM Bill Smith went out and got closer Matt Capps from the Washington Nationals to deepen the pen.

Finally, reading is fundamental and so are the Twins. The organization is the best at teaching the basics and no one has utilized those lessons in the majors better than old manager Tom Kelly and current skipper Ron Gardenhire.

Position Comparison

1B Mark Teixeira > Michael Cuddyer
Cuddyer was in RF until Morneau's injury; his production dropped off substantially from last year (32 HR - 14 HR .862 - .753 OPS). Teixeira struggled all season until Kevin Long straightened him out and he went on a second half tear. Though he slowed in September due to thumb and foot injuries, he still finished with an .846 OPS and 33 HR, 102 RBI.

2B Robinson Cano > Orlando Hudson
Cano should either win the AL MVP award or finish second to Texas' Josh Hamilton. He had 200 hits for the second straight season and posted career highs in HR (29), RBI (104) and OPS (.914). He also played gold glove 2nd base. Orlando Hudson is a solid defender, but doesn't have much of a stick.

SS Derek Jeter > J.J. Hardy
Jeter had the worst offensive seasons of his career, but still managed to score 111 runs and was solid defensively, with a career low six errors. He started to come on in September after working with Long, finishing with 25 hits in his last 72 at-bats (.347). Hardy has been a disappointment after breaking out in 2007-2008 while with Milwaukee. He was limited to 101 games by injury and posted just a .714 OPS.

3B Alex Rodriguez > Danny Valencia
A-Rod put up another 30-HR 100-RBI year despite playing in just 125 games (123 RBI). He was also solid defensively. Valencia is developing into a nice player- his rookie campaign consisted of a .799 OPS, .311 AVG, 7 HR, 40 RBI in 85 games.

LF Delmon Young > Brett Gardner
The two are on par defensively, but Young's offense had a much greater impact on his team's lineup, especially when Morneau went down. Young posted career highs in virtually every offensive category. Gardner's speed can be a difference maker, but he must be more aggressive on the bases.

CF Curtis Granderson > Denard Span
Granderson was having a miserable season until Long once again worked his magic in mid-August. The result was a much more productive and powerful Granderson. Span had a horribly disappointing season after hitting .311 in 2009. This year he posted a sub-.700 OPS.

RF Nick Swisher > Jason Kubel
It's not by a lot, but Swisher wins out. He was a secondary MVP to Cano on the Yankees for much of the season. Kubel has good power, is a clutch hitter, but is better at DH.

C Joe Mauer > Jorge Posada + Francisco Cervelli
Mauer's power may be down, but the hits keep on coming. The health of his left knee could play a factor, but just like Jeter, he'll downplay it. Posada and Cervelli have had mediocre years on both sides of the ball.

DH Marcus Thames/Lance Berkman - Jim Thome
It's a toss up. Thames has been hammering righties and lefties. Berkman has hit better from the left side since a DL stint in September. Thome is still mashing the long ball, though Gardenhire might use someone else against lefties Sabathia and Pettitte.

Yankees Starting Rotation > Twins Starting Rotation
CC Sabathia should win the Cy Young. Andy Pettitte is a rock if healthy and Phil Hughes had a breakout year with 18 wins. Liriano has ace stuff and has backed it up. Carl Pavano has been a revelation. But the Twins have to be worried about a game 4 match up of Sabathia vs. Nick Blackburn.

Yankees Bench > Twins Bench
Yankees have more pop potential when called upon.

Yankees Bullpen - Mariano Rivera, Kerry Wood & Company a little > Twins Bullpen Matt Capps, Jon Rauch & Company
Rivera's post-season work speaks for itself and Wood has put up amazing numbers since joining the Yankees.

Twins Manager Ron Gardenhire > Yankees Manager Joe Girardi
Girardi has the World Series ring, but Gardenhire is the better in game manager. But he still hasn't figured out how to beat the Yankees, especially in New York.

Prediction: Yankees in Five.

Prediction and Preview Time - AL East

It's that time of year again. The pretenders (the non-Chrissie Hynde Pretenders) will fall by the way side and the cream of the baseball crop will rise to the top. Time for some AL and NL previews and some post-season award predictions.

AL East

Why not start off with the toughest division in baseball - no, not the NL Central. The AL East is the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. <--Period. Forget the Orioles. Forget the Blue Jays. They aren't going to sniff first place once the calendar turns to May. It likely it won't even take that long, but you can be tied for first with 1-0 mark. The Yankees have plenty on the line and some significant changes from last season. Gone are Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui, two components of the team's 27th world championship. Added is Javier Vazquez to strengthen a solid rotation. Phil Hughes won a battle for the 5th starter spot, meaning Joba Chamberlain will be working out of the bullpen on a full-time basis.

Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson try to fill the void left by Damon and Matsui and the Yankees have a healthy Alex Rodriguez to start the season.

Question marks surround left field where Brett Gardner and Randy Winn will share most of the time, Johnson's health (that's unsavory sounding no matter how you spell it out), the lack of a veteran backstop for Jorge Posada, and the overall aging of a lot of the key players on the team.

The Red Sox had a 7-0 series advantage over the Yankees at one point last season. But April baseball doesn't make title winners. The Sox won 95 games, but still finished a distance eight games behind their NY rivals. Then came a three game sweep at the hands of the LA Angels, a team Boston normally manhandled in the post-season, in the wildcard series.

Injuries started to take their toll as the regular season wore on and still have some impact as the team enters the 2010 season. Starter Daisuke Matsuzaka will start the season on the DL and perennially injured Mike Lowell is hurting again.

To bolster the rotation, the Red Sox threw a load of money at veteran right-hander John Lackey, who will join Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Tim Wakefield as the team breaks camp and heads north.

Beckett is the key to the Red Sox season. After a blazing start to the '09 season, he faltered down the stretch and regularly served up gopher balls. If healthy and consistent, Beckett, Lackey, and Lester are the best 1-2-3 punch in all of baseball.

The offense has taken a hit with the departure of Jason Bay and needs a re-emergence fromDavid Ortiz if the Sox are going to win the AL East or wildcard. Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron could provide some spark, but the Sox will have the third best offense of the AL East "Big 3". Having Victor Martinez for a full season will certainly help.

Defensively, the Sox made a good move in bringing in Marco Scutaro to play shortstop and have a tremendous defensive infield. Cameron's acquisition allows the Red Sox to move the shaky glove of Jacoby Ellsbury to left field.

The Rays fell apart one year after winning the AL pennant. Just 84 wins left Tampa Bay in third place and in the dust. But this team should rebound this season. They had a positive start by winning 19 Spring Training games and B.J. Upton is healthy.

Upton's attitude came under fire at times last season, but his bad shoulder was more of a problem than his head. Evan Longoria is a stud and the Rays get regular contributions from Ben Zobrist, Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford, and Jason Bartlett.

The Rays starting rotation may not have the pedigree of the Yankees and Red Sox pitchers, but Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, and James Shields are a solid front three. 2008 #1 pick David Price and outstanding prospect Wade Davis round out the rotation.

The Rays' bullpen, so magnificent in '08, was a model of inconsistency last season. Tampa Bay has brought in veteran Rafael Soriano to take over the closer role. Soriano's ability is not in question, but keeping him healthy and on the field is. The Rays have to hope that solid lefty J.P. Howell isn't out too long with a tired left shoulder.

Crawford's pending free agency could be another issue as the season wears on. It's unlikely the Rays will be able to retain him after this season, so do they trade him in-season? If so, uber prospect Desmond Jennings may get a 2010 call up.

AL East stories from Toronto and Baltimore worth watching:

1. The progress of Matt Wieters at and behind the plate for the Orioles. After a slow start, Wieters hit well down the stretch and showed the power he is capable of producing.

2. The Blue Jays don't have Roy Halladay in the rotation for the first time since 2001. The Yankees are surely glad he's over in the NL.

3. Shaun Marcum's return to the Jays' rotation. Marcum pitched under the radar in putting up back to back solid years in 2007-08. Then came Tommy John surgery and many months of recovery. Marcum has worked his way back and has been rewarded with the opening day start for Toronto.

4. Will Brian Roberts' back problems be resolved or will he miss a good chunk of the season? Anyone who has ever suffered back pain knows how debilitating it can be. Roberts is suffering from a herniated disk that has limited his playing time this spring. The Orioles have brought in veteran Julio Lugo as a backup.

And the division winner is.......

The Yankees. Some would call it bias, but I see the Yankees winning the AL East once again with....the Rays finishing just ahead of the Red Sox for second place and the wildcard. But hey, what do I know.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays - April 3

The Yankees and Blue Jays play the rubber game of their 3 game series tonight with a couple of youngsters on the hill. 26-yr old Dustin McGowan blossomed in his first full season in the majors in 2007, posting a 12-10 record with a 4.08 ERA. 21-yr old Phil Hughes makes his 14th career start against the team that he made his first career start against last year.

McGowan is 2-2, 5.63 in 9 career appearances against the Yanks, 5 of them as a starter. That includes a 1-1, 7.88 mark at Yankee Stadium. Despite his record and ERA, the Yankees haven't him that well individually outside of the captain.

Derek Jeter .438 (7-16) 2 RBI 3 BB 5 SB
Jason Giambi 1-3
Jose Molina 1-2
Robinson Cano 4-15 3 RBI
Alex Rodriguez 1-11
Bobby Abreu 2-12
Jorge Posada 2-8
Johnny Damon 3-16
Melky Cabrera 1-8

Hughes was 1-1, 4.70 against the Blue Jays in 3 starts last season. That included his major league debut on April 26 when he allowed 4 runs in 4.1 innings. He allowed just 4 earned runs in next his 2 starts against them, covering 11.1 innings. Obviously the Blue Jays don't have a deep resume against him.

Aaron Hill 1-7
John McDonald 1-4
Alex Rios 4-9 1 RBI
Frank Thomas 3-8 1 RBI
Vernon Wells 3-6 1 RBI
Greg Zaun 0-1
Lyle Overbay 1-4
Matt Stairs 1-5

Yankees vs. Blue Jays - April 3

The Yankees and Blue Jays play the rubber game of their 3 game series tonight with a couple of youngsters on the hill. 26-yr old Dustin McGowan blossomed in his first full season in the majors in 2007, posting a 12-10 record with a 4.08 ERA. 21-yr old Phil Hughes makes his 14th career start against the team that he made his first career start against last year.

McGowan is 2-2, 5.63 in 9 career appearances against the Yanks, 5 of them as a starter. That includes a 1-1, 7.88 mark at Yankee Stadium. Despite his record and ERA, the Yankees haven't him that well individually outside of the captain.

Derek Jeter .438 (7-16) 2 RBI 3 BB 5 SB
Jason Giambi 1-3
Jose Molina 1-2
Robinson Cano 4-15 3 RBI
Alex Rodriguez 1-11
Bobby Abreu 2-12
Jorge Posada 2-8
Johnny Damon 3-16
Melky Cabrera 1-8

Hughes was 1-1, 4.70 against the Blue Jays in 3 starts last season. That included his major league debut on April 26 when he allowed 4 runs in 4.1 innings. He allowed just 4 earned runs in next his 2 starts against them, covering 11.1 innings. Obviously the Blue Jays don't have a deep resume against him.

Aaron Hill 1-7
John McDonald 1-4
Alex Rios 4-9 1 RBI
Frank Thomas 3-8 1 RBI
Vernon Wells 3-6 1 RBI
Greg Zaun 0-1
Lyle Overbay 1-4
Matt Stairs 1-5

The Rotations - AL West

A’s

Guaranteed Spots: Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Lenny DiNardo, Chad Gaudin

The A’s have already moved out their ace, Rich Harden, and GM Billy Beane is exploring deals for Joe Blanton (14-10, 3.95).

Harden has incredible stuff, but his arm has been a wreck- he’s thrown just 71.2 innings over the last 2 seasons.

DiNardo came into his own last season, making 20 starts, and putting up respectable numbers (8-10, 4.11).

Gaudin underwent off-season surgery on his hip and foot and hopes to be ready for opening day. He threw a career high 199 innings last year and faded as the season went on. He also has control issues, having walked 100 hitters last season.

Barring any additional deals, the A’s will look to their youth for their 4^th and 5^th starters. Dan Meyer, acquired in the Tim Hudson deal, got hammered (8.82 ERA) in a 6 game cup of coffee last season, but went 8-2, 3.28 at Triple-A. Beane has to be banking on Meyer being ready for prime time.

Dallas Braden falls into the same category as Meyer. He had mixed results in 20 apperances,14 of which were starts for the A’s- 1.8, 6.72- but was 2-3, 2.95 ERA in Triple-A.

The A’s also brought back Kirk Saarloos, who went 17-16 from 2005-2006, before flopping with the Reds last year (1-5, 7.17).

Mariners

Guaranteed Spots: Erik Bedard, Felix Hernandez, Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Silva

The Mariners picked up a bonafide ace when they acquired Bedard from the Orioles. He makes the division that much more competitive.

“The King”, Felix Hernandez was off to an incredible start (1-hitter against the Red Sox) before his history of arm problems caught up with him. The M’s shut him down for a bit of time, and watched what pitches he threw the rest of the season. It produced pretty good results – 14-7, 3.92; 165 K’s in 190.1 IP, and Hernandez was strong again down the stretch.

Washburn either very good or very bad, but still managed to put up decent numbers- 10-15, 4.32. He also maintained a good ERA (4.03) when the M’s sank like a stone in September.

Silva signed a 4-year, $48 million deal in the off-season. Not bad for a guy coming off years of 13-14, 4.19 and 11-15, 5.92. Where can we get one of those deals? Silva only allowed 20 home runs last year after allowing 38 in 2006 and will benefit from the spacious confines of Safeco Field.

Miguel Batista and Horacio Ramirez should battle for the 5^th spot.

Angels

Guaranteed Spots: Kelvim Escobar, Jered Weaver, John Garland, John Lackey

Lackey is the workhorse of the group, averaging 210 innings pitcher over the last 5 seasons. Last year Lackey was at his best, put up a 19-9 record and a miniscule (by today’s standards) 3.01 ERA.

Escobar has blossomed since joining the Halos, but he’ll miss the start of the season with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. Escobar put up career numbers -18-7, 3.40 – in 2007.

Garland multi-year deal expires after this season, he was prime trade bait. Garland struggled last year, but who didn’t in Chicago? He’s average 207 IP over the last 6 years and won 18 games in back-to-back seasons (2005-6).

Weaver has lived up to his billing in his first two seasons in the majors. He threw 161 innings last year and has gone 20-9 in 47 big league starts.

Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana were to do battle for the 5^th spot in the rotation, but both will be in the top 5 due to Escobar’s injury. Saunders has shown a lot of promise, going 15-8, 4.55 in his first 2 years. Santana, on the other hand, has been in a downward spiral since going 10-3, 3.68 prior to the 2006 All-Star break. The Dominican-born right-hander went 6-5, 4.68 in the 2^nd half, and was horrendous in 2007, going 7-14, 5.76. Santana was the name often asked for in trade talks, but the Angels wouldn’t part with him. Now he’s the name the Angels often put in trade talks, but he’s lost considerable value.

Rangers

Guaranteed Spots: Kevin Millwood, Brandon McCarthy, Jason Jennings, Vincente Padilla

Millwood made 31 starts, but averaged less than 6 innings a start due to hamstring problem. His 5.16 ERA was a career worst. This off-season he has taken up kick boxing to help his conditioning.

People questioned the acquisition of McCarthy, especially since it cost the Rangers prospect John Danks. McCarthy didn’t have the best season, allowing more hits than innings pitched and issued 48 walks in just 101.2 innings. On a positive not, he only allowed 9 home runs.

Jennings makes his way to the AL after 6 seasons in Colorado and 1 in Houston. He put up a 3.78 ERA in 2006, but his free agency was hurt by an elbow injury, and subsequent surgery, and a 6.45 ERA in 2007.

It’s been a long time since the Padilla Flotilla was a hit in Philadelphia. Vincente Padilla’s ERA has not been below 4.50 in the last 4 years. He did give the Rangers 15 wins and 200 innings in 2006 and manager Ron Washington is hoping to get that again after Padilla missed chunks of last season with a triceps injury. GM Jon Daniels has also been shopping the right-hander this off-season.

Kason Gabbard was acquired from the Red Sox in the Eric Gagne deal at last year’s trade deadline. In 7 starts for Boston, Gabbard was 4-0, 3.73 and held opponents to a .196 batting average. But the league caught up to the left-hander in Texas, where he posted a 2-1, 5.68 record in 8 starts. Gabbard walks too many hitters and doesn’t strike anyone out, so it’s a fine line between good and bad, but he probably has the inside track on the 5^th spot in the rotation.

Also getting a look this spring will be Kameron Loe who made 38 starts over the last two seasons, both of which resulted in an ERA over 5, and Robinson Tejeda, who posted a 6.61 ERA in 19 starts. Veterans Jason Davis and Jamey Wright are also in camp as are prospects Luis Mendoza and Eric Hurley.

Ranking the Rotations

1. Angels
2. Mariners
3. A's
4. Rangers