2 Months to Go

The Yankees sit 4.5 games back of the Rays in the AL East and 1.5 games behind the Red Sox for the Wild Card (the Twins are in between, one-half game back of Boston). One of our favorite sportswriter's, Dan Graziano, thinks Boston just said good-bye to their season and the AL East will be between the Rays and Yankees. We strongly disagree.

Last night's Yankees game epitomized how the season has gone for this team. You have two starters in Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner, who pretty much stink (though we keep hoping Rasner can make some grand adjustment), which means the rotation can't afford to have a hiccup such as the one Andy Pettitte had last night, or Mike Mussina had against Baltimore.

The Red Sox are certainly not the same team without Manny. He and David Ortiz formed the most fearsome 1-2 punch in baseball. When Manny went so did Ortiz's protection in the order. Mike Lowell and Jason Bay are very good hitters, but they don't strike fear in opponent's hearts.

All that being said, the Red Sox still have a very good lineup, and solid pitching. Theo Epstein's mistake this deadline was not upgrading his bullpen. But the team is not inferior to the Yankees. They are still the reigning World Series champions and they know how to win.

Currently this is what the AL East looks like

Rays 63-44
Red Sox 61-48
Yankees 59-49

There are 54 games left in the Yankees schedule, against the following opponents:

Angels 9
Blue Jays 9
Mariners 3
Orioles 6
Rangers 4
Rays 6
Red Sox 6
Royals 3
Tigers 1
Twins 3
White Sox 4

12 games with the two teams in front of the Yankees in the East and 3 games, next week, with the Twins, who are ahead in the Wild Card. Plus 13 more games with teams in 1st place (the White Sox and Angels).

So let's try to figure out how the Yankees will do in those games.

Angels 9 games...the Yankees stink against the Angels 3-6
Blue Jays 9 games...depends if they have to face Halladay and Burnett, but we'll go 6-3
Mariners 3 games..should sweep this one 3-0
Orioles 6 games..they've been a nemesis 3-3
Rangers 4 games.....their pitching is still bad 3-1
Rays 6 games....tough pitching, but we think experience will out 4-2
Red Sox 6 games...Beckett can only go so many times 4-2
Royals 3 games...getting worse as the year goes on 2-1
Tigers 1 game...a make up...coin flip 1-0
Twins 3 games...on the road...tough 1-2
White Sox 4 games...at home 2-2 or 3-1...difficult, well go out on a limb 3-1

So that means the Yankees would go 33-21 and finish 92-70. Ironically, we predict 93 wins before the season started. Will 92 wins mean enough for a playoff spot though? Just for the AL East, the Rays would have to go, at the most, 28-27 and the Red Sox would have to finish no better than 30-23 for the Yankees to capture the division. That would also leave the Yankees ahead of the Red Sox in the Wild Card race, meaning the Twins would have to finish no better than 31-23.

12 games over .500 could get the Yankees to the playoffs. They're capable of it, but we're not sure they can do it unless Ian Kennedy, Al Aceves, Phil Hughes, or whomever can step it up in the rotation. It should make for interesting dog days of Summer.