Weak Trade Winds in the Forecast - Part I

The Major League Baseball trade deadline is just 2 1/2 weeks away and as usual rumors are running rampant. Trades are very slowly beginning to occur. The biggest so far was yesterday's acquisition of Aubrey Huff by the Houston Astros for a couple of mid-level prospects. Yesterday the Cincinnati Reds, despite being in the hunt in the NL Central dealt their starting shortstop Felipe Lopez along with the ever promising Austin Kearns and the disappointing Ryan Wagner to the Washington Nationals for their starting shortstop, the good fielding, no hitting Royce Clayton, infielder Brendan Harris and pitchers Bill Bray and Gary Majewski. The Reds hoped it would give their sagging bullpen a shot in the arm.

Earlier we saw the Reds bolsted their pen by acquiring Eddie Guardado from the Seattle Mariners for that household name, Travis Chick. The Yankees grabbed .220 lifetime hitter Aaron Guiel off waivers from the Kansas City Royals. The LA Dodgers - Tampa Bay Devil Rays catcher/pitcher swap of Navarro and Seo for Hall and Hendrickson wasn't exactly a headline maker.

What has caused teams to be slow to pull the trigger? Thanks to the wild card they all seem to be still contenders, especially the National League. While the Mets have sewn up the NL East, 4 teams contend for the NL Central and all 5 teams in the NL West can win the division. That puts 6 teams in the NL wild card race.

The Yankees are in a 3 team race in the AL East, while the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox duke it out in the Central. Just like their NL brethren, the AL West is anyone's to take. Chicago has a sizeable lead in the wild card, but with half a season to go there are still plenty of teams who have a shot, especially if the Detroit Tigers suddenly fall on hard times.

Here's a look at who should be buying or selling at the July 31 deadline as well as some players who might be available. Every team could use a starting pitcher, bullpen help, and another solid bat. First the American League;

AL East

Buyers - Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays

Sellers -

Orioles

Miguel Tejada
There's been speculation since last season that Tejada would be moved, primarily because he asked to be. Despite a hefty salary the Orioles could get plenty back for Tejada. At least that was the scenario prior to Tejada's name being leaked as one of the players admitted steroid user Jason Grimsley ratted on. Since then Tejada's performance and attitude have suffered. Tejada's contract can be a stumbling block as he still has 2 years left of the 6-yr, $72 million deal he signed prior to the '03 season.

Javy Lopez
The 14 year veteran has been injured and unproductive the last 2 seasons, but some team may take a chance, hoping he still has some home runs left in his bat. He's a man without a position in Baltimore so it makes sense to move him. Lopez is also in the last year of a 3-yr, $22.5 million contract.

Jeff Conine
Conine is a serviceable player that can play 1st Base or the Outfield and can still provide a good stick from the right side.

Rodrigo Lopez
The 30-yr old right-hander was terrific in 2002 and 2004 and fair or worse in 2003 and 2005. This year should have been a good one, but no one told Lopez. He's been awful to the tune of a 6.92 ERA. But everyone needs pitching and someone will take a chance. The O's have Hayden Penn and Adam Loewen ready to take his place.

Bruce Chen
The veteran lefty seemed to turn his career around in 2004-5 with the Orioles, going 15-11 with an ERA in the 3's. This season the league is hitting .335 against him and he's still looking for his first win.

LaTroy Hawkins

Hawkins erratic pitching and failure in the clutch as led him to 4 different teams in 4 years. But he's been a decent set up man and could help out a contender.



Devil Rays

Aubrey Huff **DEALT TO HOUSTON**

Casey Fossum

Fossum was once a prized prospect in the Boston Red Sox farm system. He was then shipped to the Arizona dessert in the Curt Schilling deal. One season later he was sent to Tampa for Jose Cruz Jr. Still just 28 Fossum will never achieve the hype that the Sox organization and Peter Gammons placed on him. He could still be a serviceable starter in the back end of a rotation. Though his fastball is only in the low 90s, he has a couple of good curveballs to throw hitters off balance. He can also beat good lineups as his games against his former Sox teammates have shown.

Travis Lee

Lee never lived up to the hype that surrounded him as a hitter when he came up with the Phillies and Diamondbacks, but he's been a solid defender. Hitting just .197 with 4 home runs, a change of scenery might do him good. At the very least he could provide someone with a good back up first baseman. Perhaps Lee's career would be resurrected by playing for a contender such as Boston (J.T. Snow wanted no part of the place).

Julio Lugo

Lugo's name surfaces every year in trade talks. The Rays need to make up their minds whether to have him as their every day shortstop until they find a youngster who can play the position or move him out and get some return for the 30-year old. Its clear B.J. Upton is NOT the answer at shortstop, so unless they are blown away, the Rays should keep him.


AL CENTRAL
span style="font-weight:bold;">Buyers - Tigers, White Sox

Twins

This is a team on the bubble as far as deciding to buy or sell. It's not likely they can catch either Detroit or Chicago, meaning a non-playoff year. This team has lots of young talent - Johann Santana, Francisco Liriano, Joe Mauer, Jason Kubel, Justin Morneau...and will be contenders for years to come if they add some more to the mix. They are in need of more offensive production, but it makes no sense to go out and be buyers unless between now and the 31st they continue their hot streak and the Tigers or White Sox fall well back to the pack. Since that's not likely to happen there are some players they could move to strengthen their future.

Luis Castillo

Castillo looked like he had revived his career when he hit .362 in April, but he's been on the decline since. After an average May, he was just plain awful in June. He's also an Astroturf player. His average on turf is nearly 100 points higher than on grass - this translates to 100 points higher at home than the road as well. the switch-hitter is also hitting just .220 from the right side. Castillo still does have a slick glove though and has stolen 9 bases on balky knees. With a $5.75 million option for 2007 and only a $500,000 buyout, there's a good chance a contender would take a chance on him.

Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse

There aren't too many teams that will be banging down the door for Lohse and Silva will most likely not be traded. Both these players showed a lot of promise at one time and haven fallen well short since. Silva was already struggling when he started suffering from hamstring and knee problems. He was 23-16, 3.84 for his first two seasons in the bigs, but is 4-9, 7.00 this season. The league is hitting an astonishing .343 against him. With Scott Baker and Boof Bonser looking to join the rotation (in fact Baker was recalled today), the Twins should try to move Silva for a bat.

Lohse will have much less takers than Silva. He's been a model of inconsistency in his 6 year career, as evidenced by his 4.72 career ERA entering this season. 2006 has been a nightmare for the 27-yr old who is 2-5, 7.48 and has been pushed to the bullpen. His best scenario would be to go to a pitcher's park in the NL.

Juan Rincon

The 27-yr old righty has been excellent the last 3 seasons, holding teams to batting averages of .181, .224, and .231. His ERA has been under 3.00 in each of those seasons as well. Trading Rincon would definitely weaken the Twins pen especially with the way Jessie Crain has struggled. But there are many teams in need of relief help and Rincon could fetch a hefty price. Rincon's name does have a black mark after being suspended for steroid use in 2005, but it apparently has not had an effect on his pitching.

Indians

The Indians have fallen as we expected due to their roster changes entering 2006. With no playoffs in site, Cleveland has a number of valuable players they can move during the non-waiver deadline.

Bob Wickman

The portly right-hander has not been at his best this season, which may very well be his last. Considering retirement, Wickman most certainly would want the chance to pitch for a contender down the stretch and there are plenty of teams that will want his services. Wickman was marvelous last year, ripping off a career high 45 saves. He also appeared in 64 games, his highest total since 2001. It makes you wonder if it has had an impact on this season. Wickman blew 3 saves and lost 3 games in June alone. He's also struggled with his control. It also makes more sense to try out new closers rather than have Wickman continue to close, even if he remains in Cleveland.

Aaron Boone

Boone bounced back from 2004's knee surgery with a decent 2005 season - .243 average, 16 homers, 60 RBI. Boone didn't hit much for average in the first month of the season, but did drive in 14 runs, while playing a stellar 3rd base. Things have gone downhill since just as the Indians season has. To date, Boone is hitting just .254-4-36 and has committed a league high 14 errors while putting together a poor .935 fielding percentage. Can you say, "change of scenery"?

Todd Hollandsworth

The 33-yr old veteran outfielder has been with 6 organizations in the last 5 years and it's time to go to a 7th. He still has a serviceable bat, .258-6-26 in 120 ABs, and plays a solid outfield. The Indians don't need him in a throw away season and someone could.

Royals

The season has been as bad as advertised and there's not a lot of hope for the future of the franchise. The franchise was sentimental for too long in holding on to its best player in Mike Sweeney, who is on the DL as usual. Other veterans will be in some demand though.

Reggie Sanders

Sanders finds a way to make the playoffs just about every season. This season it will take a trade which Sanders would gladly except. The free-agent signee leads the team with just 9 home runs. That goes along with a .250 average and 43 RBI. He can definitely fill a run producing spot for any contender.

Mark Grudzielanek

Grudzielanek is far from flashy, but his .291 average and steady play would be welcome to a contender as either a starter or role player off the bench. His lifetime .330 OBP is reason enough to move him out.



AL WEST

Buyers - A's, Mariners, Angels, Rangers

Entering last night's play only 2.5 games separate the 4 teams. Oakland is strong in pitching, short on bats. The Angels are pretty much in the same boat. Texas is in the midst of its annual search for pitching. The Mariners have been inconsistent all year, but then again who in this division isn't. All or none of these teams may make any significant moves prior to the deadline.

Additional Players That May Move

Angels - 2B Adam Kennedy
Royals - P Mark Redman

Part II Tomorrow