Tuesday, March 28, 2006

AL Central Preview

These Sox Don’t Smell

When White Sox shortstop Juan Uribe fielded a ground ball off of the bat of Astros outfielder Orlando Palmiero and fired it into the mitt of first baseman Paul Konerko, the White Sox ended a World Series drought of 78 years. There’s no reason to think that the White Sox won’t be celebrating again this year. Pitching and defense win championships, and in Chicago’s case, it provided a clean sweep of the Astros in the 2005 World Series. The White Sox return four starting pitchers from last year - Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland, and Jose Contreras. Orlando Hernandez was dealt to the Diamondbacks in the off-season for Javier Vazquez. For the Sox to repeat, those five must be on their game. While El Duque’s age is always a wonder, he’s one of the grittiest playoff performers of all time. Vazquez, albeit partially due to an arm injury, melted in the New York spotlight.

The White Sox must get repeat performances from Garland and Contreras. At 25, Garland had a break out season, winning 18 games. Contreras finally got some confidence and some adjustments from pitching coach Don Cooper, and went 11-2 after the all-star break.

Bobby Jenks came up huge last season when closer Dustin Hermanson went down with a bad back. The job is all Jenks now, who must prove he can do the job for an entire season.

The biggest acquisition for the White Sox in the off-season was their own player. Free agent Paul Konerko stayed home after putting his signature on a brand new 5-year, $60 million contract. The White Sox gave up one of their best defensive components in centerfielder Aaron Rowand so they could acquire another big bat in the Phillies Jim Thome. Manager Ozzie Guillen can only hope that Thome’s ailing back has healed sufficiently enough for a return to his 35-40 home run seasons. Meanwhile rookie Brian Anderson will finally get his chance at the bigs replacing Rowand in center.

2005 - 1st Place 2006 Prediction - 1st Place


Circle the Wagons, Here Come The Indians

Cleveland shot back into the playoff chase in 2005 thanks to an infusion of young, talented players, good pitching, and a team that can swing the lumber. Under 3rd year manager Eric Wedge the tribe won 90+ games for the first time since 2001. In fact the Indians have improved in each of Wedge’s three seasons- 68-94, 80-82, 93-69. Unfortunately for Indians fans that trend will probably end this year.

While there is no doubt that the Indians will be competitive, they may very well have taken a step back from last season. Gone are ace Kevin Millwood and sparkplug Coco Crisp. Gone too is reliever David Riske, who struggled in closing situations, but did pretty well in middle and set up relief.

C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee are the two standouts in the starting rotation. While more than the adequate, the remaining three, Jake Westbrook, Paul Byrd, and Jason Johnson , are less than stellar. The bullpen has been a problem for Cleveland and will continue to be one. Newly acquired Guillermo Mota may not be healthy and closer Bob Wickman, who stayed in Cleveland with a one-year deal, is 37 and injury prone. Rafael Betancourt is solid, but was suspended last season for steroid use.

There are plenty of big sticks in the lineup though. MVP candidate Travis Hafner has averaged 30 home runs and 108 RBI the last 2 seasons. Joining him are the capable bats of Victor Martinez, Jhonny Peralta, Ronnie Belliard, Grady Sizemore, Ben Broussard, Casey Blake, and Aaron Boone. If Boone should falter, super prospect Andy Marte will be waiting in the wings to take over third base. The Indians should score plenty of runs, but give up plenty as well.

2005 - 2nd Place 2006 Prediction - 2nd Place



And Oh Those Twins

Minnesota fell out of the playoff race last season due to a lack of offense. The acquisitions of Rueben Sierra, Rondell White, and Tony Batista aren’t going to change that. Torii Hunter’s recovering from a devastating ankle break could make or break - no pun intended - the lineup and season as well.

The Twins still have the dynamic duo of Johann Santana and Brad Radke to front the starting rotation, and Joe Nathan to close out games. Outstanding young arms in Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker could provide a huge boost as well. However, it’s going to be the Twins young hitters that will determine how competitive this team is.

Catcher Joe Mauer, still just 22, is coming off of a .294 season and hopes to increase his power from last year’s disappointing 9 home runs (he hit 6 home runs in 382 less at-bats in 2004). Stud prospect Jason Kubel hopes to get over the injury bug that has plagued him the last two seasons and to beat out Lew Ford for the right field job. First Baseman Justin Morneau will look to improve on a 22-HR 79-RBI season. Throw in veteran outfielder Shannon Stewart, and newly acquired second baseman Luis Castillo, and the Twins could improve on last year’s run total - if they go get another bat.

2005 - 3rd Place 2006 Prediction - 3rd Place (seeing a trend here)


Throwing Good Money After Bad Money

That’s what the Detroit Tigers did prior to the 2005 season when they signed free agents Troy Percival and Magglio Ordonez. Closer Percival appeared in only 26 games due to elbow problems and is leaning towards retirement this spring. Ordonez missed the first 2 ½ months with a hernia, then hit just 9 home runs in 82 games. Their best acquisition this off-season? No, not 41-year old, cameraman shoving, left-hander Kenny Rogers. New manager Jim Leyland will bring his enthusiasm and knowledge to the game and help make the Tigers more competitive. Alan Trammell can’t be blamed for much of what transpired in Detroit, but the mix of young pitchers and veteran hitters should blend better under Leyland.

Teams need to be strong up the middle to win and Detroit is getting there. Ivan Rodriguez is behind the plate for his third year with the Tigers. He needs to rebound from a 50-RBI campaign if this team is going to win games. The Tigers middle infield has good hitting, good fielding Carlos Guillen at shortstop and Placido Polanco at second base. Polanco provided a lot of spark last season after being acquired from the Phillies, hitting .338 in 86 games.

The early favorite for rookie of the year is the Tigers 5-tool center fielder Curtis Granderson. Granderson got a taste of the bigs last season, hitting .272-8-20 in 47 games. He and young first baseman Chris Shelton should add a lot of pop to the offense along with veterans Dmitri Young, Craig Monroe, and Brandon Inge. The Tigers starting eight should produce more than the Twins.

Just 23-years old, Jeremy Bonderman is the ace of the Tigers staff. The right hander struck out 145 en route to a 14 win season. Bonderman wore down in the second half though as he threw a career high 189 innings and only won 3 decisions. He’ll be joined by lefties Rogers, Nate Robertson and Mike Maroth, and rookie right hander Justin Verlander.

Veteran Todd Jones returns to Detroit to close, with Fernando Rodney waiting in the wings should he falter.

2005 - 4th Place 2006 Prediction - 4th Place (lots of improvement with nowhere to go)

Anything But Royalty

Do you smell that? No, that’s not the wind blowing off the Missouri River. That’s coming from the Kansas City Royals lineup. It’s hard to believe that that it was over 25 years ago when guys like George Brett, Hal McRae, Bret Saberhagen, and Dan Quisenberry were leading the perennial AL West favorites. Now they’re the favorites to live in the basement every year. Stuck at the kiddie table at Thanksgiving, never to sit at the grown-ups table.

Not that there aren’t plenty of grown up here. This past off-season the front office brought in 35-year old second baseman Mark Grudzielanek, 31-year old first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz (you need a dictionary for this team too), 35-year old pitcher Elmer Dessens, 32-year old pitcher Mark Redman, 30-year old pitcher Joe Mays, and 38-year old outfielder Reggie Sanders (thank you for having a normal name). They join 30-somethings, Emil Brown, Mike Sweeney, and Matt Stairs.

Manager Buddy Bell probably wishes Ben Gay was managing this team instead of him. In all fairness, Brown and Sanders can still hit. Okay, enough positives. Sweeney is a star, but hasn’t played more than 126 games in the last 4 seasons due to a myriad of injuries.

Things aren’t starting out well for KC this year either. Closer Mike McDougal will miss six weeks with a shoulder strain. One of their few good prospects, pitcher Zack Greinke, left camp with an undisclosed reason and won’t be back for the start of the season.

Is there any reason to go any further with this? If the Royals win 50 games it will be a miracle.

2005 - 5th Place 2006 Prediction - 5th Place (there are only 5 teams, but they should really finish 9th)

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